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Item type:Publication, El impacto de políticas diferenciadas de cuarentena sobre la mortalidad por COVID-19: el caso de Brasil y Perú(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2021-10)Según la Universidad Johns Hopkins, Brasil y el Perú se encuentran entre los cinco países con el mayor número de infectados en el mundo (octubre 2020) y donde la letalidad por COVID-19 ha sido de las más elevadas. Este estudio propone determinar el impacto del COVID-19 sobre la mortalidad, considerando las medidas de confinamiento, la pobreza y la movilidad residencial; ello contrastando Perú y Brasil como dos casos de políticas de emergencia contrarias. Para responder a la pregunta de investigación, el análisis emplea información de mortalidad de actualización diaria y desagregada a nivel municipal para ambos países. El análisis aplica un conjunto de medidas de relación y heterogeneidad espacial local y global entre los niveles de sobremortalidad subnacionales considerando datos armonizados. Complementariamente, se plantea un modelo de estudio de eventos de fallecimientos distritales para ambos países entre 2019-2020, y se miden impactos heterogéneos por edad, sexo, pobreza y movilidad residencial. El análisis espacial muestra que el patrón de muertes dista de ser aleatorio en el espacio; y que los hotspots de sobremortalidad comienzan en las “grandes ciudades” y se diseminan en el tiempo. Del mismo modo, el estudio de eventos muestra que el efecto no es lineal, sino que hay una evolución de corto y largo plazo de las muertes donde los grupos más afectados resultan ser los hombres y adultos mayores. Finalmente, considerando el caso de Lima, es posible verificar que la movilidad tiene un efecto significativo y positivo en la sobremortalidad, particularmente en distritos pobres, lo cual se condice con el final de la cuarentena. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Multimorbidity analysis and hospitalizations for diabetes before and after lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Peru(Elsevier Inc., 2022-08-01)COVID-19 has disrupted the treatment of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). This study conducted a multimorbidity analysis and evaluated hospital admissions and death rates among diabetic patients before and after the implementation of lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Peru. Data from the Ministry of Health (MINSA) of Peru from January 2017 to December 2020 was used. Hospital death, discharge and the percentage of death/hospital admissions were defined as outcomes of interest. We performed an interrupted time series analysis to assess the aggregate change in the outcomes of interest before and after mandatory lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Peru (n = 65,935). Additionally, a network analysis was performed to evaluate the frequency of occurrence of hospital admissions before and after the mandatory lockdown according to demographic characteristics. The average monthly hospital admissions among diabetic patients in Peru decreased by 29% after the implementation of the lockdown. The largest reduction was observed in women (−41%) and for patients 60 years or older (−35%). Furthermore, there was a 92% increase in the average number of monthly deaths. The largest percentage change occurred in men (+113%) and in the group of 40–59 years (+144%). After the implementation of lockdown in Peru, hospital admissions among diabetic patients significantly decreased while in-hospital mortality slightly increased. Our findings shed light on the limitations of the Peruvian health system and the importance of ensuring continued care of NCDs as part of the response strategy during times of crisis. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Regressivity in public pension systems: The case of Peru(Elsevier B.V., 2024-10-01)We study the role of income-mortality differentials and pension eligibility conditions on the level of regressivity and progressivity of Peru's public pension system, using administrative records from 1999 to 2018 to do so. We consider the joint effect of insufficient contributions, by which the poorest contribute to the pension system but ultimately do not qualify for pensions because of insufficient contributions, and differing mortality by socioeconomic status in contributing to regressivity of the system. We find that the impact of insufficient contributions is more important than the impact of higher mortality in making the system regressive. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Dinámicas y determinantes de la transición demográfica en Perú(Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, 2024-03-19)La transición demográfica designa la reducción progresiva de las tasas brutas de la natalidad y de la mortalidad según ritmos diferenciados entre los países. El objetivo del artículo es evidenciar la periodización de este proceso en Perú, mostrando su tipificación entre los modelos identificados en América latina y caracterizando su heterogeneidad territorial. A partir de la información brindada por CEPALSTAT, los censos de población y las ENDES, se propone una delimitación temporal de la transición demográfica y un análisis de los determinantes del descenso de la fecundidad en torno a variables asociadas con la “modernización sociocultural”, como la expansión de la educación y el mayor acceso a la planificación familiar. Asimismo, la desagregación territorial de los resultados da cuenta de un desfase de dos a tres décadas en los ritmos de transición demográfica entre las áreas urbanas y rurales del país. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Basin-Wide Variation in Tree Hydraulic Safety Margins Predicts the Carbon Balance of Amazon Forests(Nature Research, 2023-05-04)Tropical forests face increasing climate risk1,2, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, Ψ50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk3–5, little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters Ψ50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both Ψ50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon6,7, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.