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Item type:Publication, 2017 Coastal El Niño in Peru: an opportunity to analyze the influence of hazard mitigation plans on local resilience(Elsevier, 2021-01-01)This research proposes an ex post methodology for analyzing the influence of Hazard Mitigation Plans in the level of resilience in localities affected by an extreme event. For verifying its applicability, the case of heavy rainfalls of the 2017 coastal El Niño event in Peru is analyzed. The methodology consists of two analysis levels. The first one correlates the quality of existing plans with damages and recovery rapidity. The second analysis level focuses on one sample of the localities selected for performing a deeper qualitative-territorial analysis. The methodology applicability was verified, and we determined that the reduction of direct damages after an event is correlated to the existence of actions such as land use regulation and the structural reinforcement. Moreover, the identification of those responsible for these processes, the verification of possible financing funds and the estimation of intervention costs positively influence on the reconstruction rapidity. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru(Copernicus Publications, 2022-07-06)Abstract. Multi-hazard risk assessments for building portfolios exposed to earthquake shaking followed by a tsunami are usually based on empirical vulnerability models calibrated on post-event surveys of damaged buildings. The applicability of these models cannot easily be extrapolated to other regions of larger/smaller events. Moreover, the quantitative evaluation of the damages related to each of the hazards type (disaggregation) is impossible. To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, this study proposes an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed and calibrated by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. This method is based on the proposal of state-dependent fragility functions for the triggered hazard to account for the pre-existing damage, and the harmonisation of building classes and damage states through their taxonomic characterization, which is transversal to any hazard-dependent vulnerability. This modular assemblage also allows us to separate the economic losses expected for each scenario on building portfolios subjected to cascading hazards. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios. We show the importance of accounting for damage accumulation on extended building portfolios while observing a dependency between the earthquake magnitude and the losses derived for each hazard scenario. For the commonly exposed residential building stock of Lima exposed to both perils, we find that classical tsunami empirical fragility functions lead to an underestimation of predicted losses for lower magnitudes (Mw) and large overestimations for larger Mw events in comparison to our state-dependent models and cumulative damage method. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Understanding the human dimensions of wildfire risk at a community level in British Columbia, Canada(2026-03-01)Recent spikes in the number of large and catastrophic wildfires in Canada pose significant risks to the environment and society. Rural and remote communities are especially at risk due to their location in wildfire‐prone areas, remoteness, and limited access or escape routes. In this paper, we examine how rural communities experience wildfire risk through a case study of the Robson Valley, British Columbia, Canada. An analysis of data collected through semi‐structured interviews and focus groups with residents shows that wildfire risk is shaped by diverse socio‐economic and political factors, which must be considered alongside the hazard potential for wildfire. Participants identified sensitivities related to declines in the forest industry sector and reduced capacity for fire preparedness, the potential impacts of a fire on power and transportation networks, and loss of timber supply. Limits to adaptation included the centralization of government services that changed how wildfires are suppressed—central crews are dispatched to rural areas, which can conflict with local values and attitudes for responding to wildfires. The findings suggest that rural and remote communities should be meaningfully engaged in wildfire risk management, which entails decentralizing some power and resources to communities.2 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Semi-Supervised Segmentation for Mapping Urban Expansion and Hazard Exposure in Lima, Peru(2026-01-22)Abstract. Urban expansion in rapidly growing cities increases exposure to natural hazards but remains difficult to monitor in regions with limited data. This challenge is amplified in places such as Metropolitan Lima, where global datasets of urban areas lack precision along complex and rapidly changing city boundaries. As a result, recent growth in informal and peripheral zones is not well defined. This study introduces a practical application of a semi-supervised mapping approach that combines satellite imagery with partially labeled information and targeted manual refinement to identify new built-up areas in Metropolitan Lima from 2016 to 2025. The method improves the detection of small and fragmented structures, including emerging informal settlements that global datasets frequently miss. Results show that Metropolitan Lima expanded by approximately 76 km2 during the study period. A portion of this growth occurred in coastal zones exposed to tsunamis, in areas with medium to high landslide susceptibility, and on soil types where strong ground shaking is amplified during large earthquakes. These findings highlight the continued concentration of people and infrastructure in hazard-prone terrain. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, A landslide hazard and impact assessment under varying climate change scenarios in peri-urban catchments of the two largest Peruvian cities(RELX Group (Netherlands), 2026-01-01)2 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The past at risk: assessing climate and geological hazard for the preservation of archaeological sites in coastal Peru using open-access data(Frontiers Media, 2026)The immovable archaeological heritage of Peru is among the richest in the world, particularly along the Peruvian coast, which boasts numerous examples dating from the Terminal Pleistocene to the Inca times (13000 BP-1532 AD). This cultural heritage is an important source of scientific and historical information, is the source for the construction of national identity(ies) and contributes significantly to the social and economic development of the surrounding communities. However, this archaeological heritage is under constant threat of destruction due to various factors, including climate change and human activities. This paper outlines the results of a multidisciplinary research conducted on the Peruvian coast, aimed at identifying the most significant geological and climatic hazards affecting the preservation of coastal archaeological sites. Based on fieldwork conducted on the northern and central coast, a low-cost, primarily remote analysis methodology was developed. This methodology utilizes open-access geological, cultural, archaeological, and climatic data, geographic information system, and aerial imagery to identify the effects of climatic risk (particularly El Niño), geological hazards, and to assess the vulnerability of archaeological sites to these hazards. This methodology, which provides updated and multi-variable data, is designed to support local and regional authorities in decision-making processes related to the planning and preservation of Peru's pre-Hispanic cultural heritage.