3. Producción

Browse

Settings

Subject: search.filters.subject.Future scenarios

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Loading...
    Thumbnail Image
    Some of the metrics are blocked by your 
    consent settings
    Item type:Publication,
    Foresight Study on the Influence of ChatGPT In Peruvian Universities Towards 2033
    (Academic Conferences and Publishing International, 2025-04-29)
    This article investigates how the integration of ChatGPT could transform Peruvian universities by 2033. Twenty drivers were identified, including digital competencies, critical thinking, academic performance, and motivation. Using a foresight approach, possible future scenarios were generated. The methodology consists of four stages: (1) Exploration of the system to identify key drivers; (2) Validation of the information by applying the Delphi method in real time to confirm these drivers; (3) Construction of scenarios using Schwartz axes and structural analysis; and (4) Validation of scenarios using the Probability, Desirability and Governance (PDG) method. The analysis revealed that the most important and uncertain drivers are related to 'training in critical thinking, feedback through intelligent tutoring, and the development of technological infrastructure,' located in Schwartz's Quadrant III. These drivers are crucial to building four scenarios, including the target scenario dubbed "Overcoming Challenges with Innovation and Technology".
      1
  • Loading...
    Thumbnail Image
    Some of the metrics are blocked by your 
    consent settings
    Item type:Publication,
    Actual y futura disponibilidad del agua en un contexto de inseguridad hídrica en la subcuenca de Parón, cuenca del río Santa, Perú
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2024-04-16)
    Water security in Andean watersheds depends on adaptive water management in the face of glaciohydrological and socioeconomic impacts. The Parón sub-basin in the Santa River basin (Ancash, Peru) is a suitable case in this respect. Water is regulated by a floodgate in the Parón lake, which has become a focal point of social conflict. This study analyzes the water balance of this sub-basin using a semi-distributed hydrological model for the present (2006-2016) and future (2030-2050), considering different scenarios of precipitation variation, glacial melting, and increased water demand. Without regulation of the lake, the sub-basin would enter into a strong water deficit in the dry months (June-August). Until 2030 (2050), assuming a maximum regulation of 2.6 m³/s, a 15% (35%) increase in precipitation, and a 10% (26%) decrease in the glacier contribution to the annual flow, water availability would be reduced by 37% (35%). In a pessimistic scenario with a 15% (35%) decrease in precipitation, water availability would still be reduced by 47% (56%) annually. These results highlight the need to keep a socially acceptable minimum water flow (>2 m³/s) to avoid critical levels of water scarcity in the dry months and to address the needs of local water users.
      4