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    Inmigración masiva, salarios reales y empleo: un modelo keynesiano
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2018-02)
    The massive arrival of Venezuelan immigrants, who escape the macroeconomic catastrophe caused by the Maduro government, is a unique event in the recent economic history of Peru. This text tries to show that a Keynesian model, where employment depends on aggregate demand, can identify the two channels through which massive immigration reduces, in the short term, employment and real wages. These two channels are the increase of the labor force that reduces the nominal and real wages, and the decrease of the propensity to consume of the employees if there is a substitution of local workers by immigrants among the employed. The Venezuelan workers have no responsibility whatsoever in creating this situation. Like the Peruvians who have emigrated since the 1980s, they only look for the best for their families. The entire responsibility lies with the Kuczynski government and its policy of free immigration that artificially extends the surplus of urban labor existing in the Peruvian economy.
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    Spillovers of COVID-19 on Employment and Income in Peru
    (Universidad Pedagogica y Tecnologica de Colombia, 2023-01-01)
    This paper estimates the spillovers effects of COVID-19 on employment (total, formal, and informal) and real income of a group of Peruvian provinces called “treated or treatment” in the period of the virus 2020- II-2021-IV. These spillovers are associated with the behavior of people who broke the confinement, crowded into relatively small spaces, and did not use protective measures against COVID-19. The measurements of these effects are based on Cao and Dowd (2019), and on the INEI-ENAHO National Household Survey (2022) for the period 2011.I-2021-IV, which is the main database of the study. Two main results of the study are, on the one hand, that COVID-19 and the confinement policies and transfers to the poor and companies contributed on average to more than 50% of the decrease in total employment, formal employment, and real income (of the economically active population employed in the province), and to the increase in informality for the group of provinces covered. On the other hand, the spillovers effects attenuated the negative effects of the decrease in formal employment and real income in said provinces.