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Item type:Publication, Simulation with system dynamics on university student research(Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science, 2022-10-01)Currently, student research at the university under study is carried out from the first semesters until the student graduates, but it is necessary to make adjustments to its guidelines that include student research within a teaching-learning process. The objective of the research is to propose a model of student research, using causal diagrams and forrester diagram; then carry out a simulation of the projection from 2021 to 2026 with the variables, students, quality teachers in the research, completed work for publication in journal or conference; and thus index in Scopus or Web of Science. Besides, in the methodological part, the systems dynamics method was applied, based on the systemic approach. The research work is predictive, which was carried out with the Vensim software, obtaining as a result of the simulation, an increase in the production of complete Works by the students; where in 2026 around 300 articles will be published by the students. In addition, there will be about 12 full-time quality research professors and approximately 6,000 students in 2026. The conclusion reached in the research is that the model helps the authorities make decisions appropriately according to the forecasts made in the different scenarios made with the Vensim software. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Performance prediction of construction projects based on the causes of claims: a system dynamics approach(MDPI, 2022-04-01)Conflict in human relations is unavoidable; therefore, it can occur in construction projects that are full of many human relationships. These conflicts can lead to claims if interlocutors do not agree. The main result of the claims is the delay and overrun of costs in construction projects. Additionally, poor management of claims affects the success of construction projects and their budget and schedule. Moreover, controlling claims ensures the successful completion of construction projects and minimizes delays and disputes. This study sought to improve the project performance by ranking the causes of claims and examining their impacts on Key Performance Indicators (KPI) using the combined AHP-TOPSIS (Analytic Hierarchy Process-Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. Given that construction projects are constantly evolving and becoming more complex and have many linear and nonlinear relationships and structures, these projects can be considered as a kind of system dynamics. The system dynamics have been used for nearly four decades to analyze and improve the performance of construction projects. This study attempted to provide a model with a system dynamics approach to predict the performance of construction projects based on the reasons for the claim. In this model, the most important performance indicators, interactions between them, and the relationship of these indicators with the reasons for claiming were simulated. The results showed that delays are the most important reasons for making claims, and they have a great impact on the KPIs such as scheduling, sustainability, customer satisfaction, quality, and team satisfaction, respectively. In the modeling and simulation discussion in this study, the proposed model simulated the dependencies between the KPIs of construction projects and their changes over time and provides a better understanding of how performance indicators interact with each other. Additionally, it can be used as a basis for simulating different management policies to find the best solution to prevent and correct the negative effects of poor performance. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Scenario analysis for the sustainability of entrepreneurship ecosystems from the dynamic performance management approach: the case of SMEs in Peru(Emerald Publishing Limited, 2026-06-15)This study aims to analyze scenarios that could reconfigure the entrepreneurship ecosystem (EE) of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Peru through the application of the dynamic performance management (DPM) approach. This is intended to understand the structural dynamics that shape the behavior of the ecosystem and its evolution in response to changes in key variables. Design/methodology/approach A DPM Chart was constructed, and system dynamics modelling was applied to represent the causal relationships, reinforcing and balancing feedback loops that characterize the Peruvian EE of SMEs. A simulation sensitivity analysis was developed to assess the systemic effects of variations in policy parameters, such as access to credit, tax burden and gross domestic product growth. Findings Simulations suggest that integrated public interventions may activate reinforcing loops associated with increases in formal entrepreneurial intention and the modelled creation of SMEs. The model showed a progressive and sustained increase in the number of active SMEs depending on the volume of credit granted, consistent with the model's representation of financing as a strategic resource, particularly in contexts where it is often limited. A similar pattern was observed in simulations related to the tax burden. Within the simulated scenarios, higher tax rates were associated with a decrease in the modelled growth of new SMEs and a drop in entrepreneurial intention. The model reveals non-linear interactions and delayed effects among policy variables. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature on EE in SMEs by operationalizing a systemic and dynamic approach adapted to the context of emerging economies. It presents a novel application of DPM to entrepreneurship policy analysis, offering policymakers a simulation tool to anticipate outcomes and design adaptive interventions.1 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Income-segmented intention-to-adoption pathways for organic food in Lima, Peru: A survey-informed system dynamics analysis(Elsevier BV, 2026-06-20)Organic food uptake in unequal urban markets often remains below stated consumer interest, especially among lower-income groups. This matters for sustainable consumption and cleaner production because broader demand is one condition under which more sustainable food systems can move beyond niche markets. This study presents a survey-informed, scenario-based System Dynamics analysis of income-segmented intention-to-adoption pathways for organic food in Lima, Peru. Drawing on an archived survey of 509 valid millennial respondents and segment-specific weights derived through the Analytic Hierarchy Process, the model tests five mechanism-specific scenario families across segments D, C, and A-B over a 30-month horizon: social influence, subsidy-based reductions in economic effort, their joint dynamic activation, knowledge of benefits and environmental awareness, and ethical-value activation. The results are clearly segmented. The largest end-of-horizon improvement appears in segment D when affordability relief and social reinforcement operate jointly (ΔP = 0.123), followed by social influence alone (ΔP = 0.087) and subsidy-based relief (ΔP = 0.051). Knowledge of benefits and environmental awareness in segment C produces a more modest gain (ΔP = 0.012), while ethical-value activation in segment A-B provides bounded directional evidence (ΔP = 0.020). These findings suggest that intention-to-adoption pathways under urban inequality are better understood as dynamic, non-additive, and segment-specific than as the outcome of a single common driver. All results should be read as scenario-based evidence on differentiated modeled pathways, not as direct observation or external validation of real purchasing behavior. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Exploring the urban systemic scenarios of improving socioecological conditions in an informal settlement of a developing country with a system dynamics model(Elsevier BV, 2025-07-01)Informal settlements (IS) present a complex system of social, economic, and ecological interactions that arise spontaneously and unplanned in urban areas and require a forward-looking and comprehensive approach to address their socio-ecological interactions. Moreover, an IS is conceptually considered a sub-system within a broader urban system, interacting with and influenced by internal and external factors. This study aims to model these interactions and factors using System Dynamics (SD), with the objective of simulating and evaluating decisions, actions, and their dynamic consequences concerning settlement consolidation (e.g., enhancing and optimizing urban areas) and improving women's access to formal employment opportunities. Consequently, a 10 year framework SD model for five scenarios was developed, including: (S0) Business as Usual (BAU); (S1) Time quality scenario; (S2) Women in formal employment scenario; (S3) Circularity scenario; and (S4) Comprehensive scenario. The results indicate that the implementation of individual solutions, such as improving the quality of men's working time (without overtime), formal employment for women (equalizing income conditions with men), water circularity (use of fog catchers and the recycling of greywater as a supply), and organic waste management (organic compost for urban gardens and the implementation of urban agriculture), does not fully leverage potential synergies. However, a comprehensive scenario that combines individual solutions jointly achieves a decrease in the time needed to improve women's conditions in formal employability (47.5 %), which is related to the settlement consolidation process. These findings provide insight into possible action strategies and policy implications for effectively addressing the challenges associated with informal settlements. • Systems dynamics effectively uncovers interdependencies and causal relationships. • Comprehensive strategies drive sustainable development in informal settlements. • Synergistic solutions optimize socioecological conditions in informal settlements. • Coordinated approaches empower women through formal employment opportunities. • Valuable insights guide evidence-based policies for transformative change.1