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    Multi‐population seedling and soil transplants show possible responses of a common tropical montane tree species (Weinmannia bangii) to climate change
    (Wiley, 2020-05-30)
    Abstract A possible response of many plant species to global warming is migration to higher elevations. However, these migrations may not be required if species can tolerate higher temperatures, or may be prevented if there are other factors such as changes in soil conditions that make upslope areas unsuitable. We used a set of 3‐year field transplant experiments in the remote Peruvian Andes to simulate two possible responses of an abundant tropical montane cloudforest tree species (Weinmania bangii) to global warming: (a) ‘upward migration’, in which case seedlings of W. bangii's were grown at their current elevation/temperature but in soils transplanted from higher elevations and (b) ‘migration failure’, in which case seedlings were transplanted downslope along with their home soils into areas that are 1°C or 2°C warmer. We conducted separate experiments with populations from the upper/leading edge, middle and lower/trailing edges of W. bangii's elevational/thermal range to assess the influence of local adaptation on responses to changes in temperature or soil. We found that seedling survival and growth were not affected by changes in soil conditions, regardless of the origin population. However, seedling survival decreased with temperature. A simulated warming of 1°C caused a significant reduction in the survival of seedlings transplanted from the mid‐range population, and 2°C warming caused a severe decrease in the survival of seedlings transplanted from both the mid‐range and bottom‐edge populations. Synthesis. Our findings reveal that rising temperatures are a serious threat to plants, especially in populations growing in the hotter portion of their species’ range. At least in the case of W. bangii, novel soil conditions will not limit the establishment or growth of seedlings at higher elevations. As such, decreases in the survivorship at lower elevations may be offset through upward migrations as temperatures continue to increase.
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    Amazonian and Andean tree communities are not tracking current climate warming
    (EarthArXiv, 2024-12-18)
    Climate change is shifting species distributions, leading to changes in community composition and novel species assemblages worldwide. However, the responses of tropical forests to climate change across large-scale environmental gradients remain largely unexplored. Using long-term data over 66,000 trees of more than 2,500 species occurring over 3,500 m elevation along the hyperdiverse Amazon-to-Andes elevational gradient, we assessed community-level shifts in species composition through a 44-year time span. We tested for the predicted increase in relative abundances of species from warmer climates (thermophilization) along the Amazon-to-Andes elevational gradients in Peru and Bolivia. Additionally, we examined the relative contributions of tree mortality, recruitment, and growth to observed compositional changes. Mean thermophilization rates across the Amazon-to-Andes gradient were slow relative to concordant changes in regional temperatures. Thermophilization rates were positive and more variable among Andean forest plots compared to Amazonian plots but were fastest at mid-elevations around the cloud base. Across all elevations, thermophilization rates were driven primarily by tree mortality and decreased growth of highland species rather than an influx of lowland species with higher thermal optima. Given the high variability of community-level responses to warming along the elevational gradients and the generally slower-than-warming rates of compositional change, we conclude that most tropical tree species, and especially Amazonian tree species, will not be able to escape current or future climate change through upward range shifts.
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