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Transition to a Circular Bioeconomy in the Sugar Agro-Industry: Predictive Modeling to Estimate the Energy Potential of By-Products
(Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), 2025-06-01)
The linear economy model in the sugar agroindustry has generated multiple impacts due to the underutilization of by-products and reliance on fossil fuels. Through predictive modeling and anaerobic digestion, the circular bioeconomy of sugarcane biomass enables the generation of biogas and electricity in an environmentally sustainable manner. This theoretical-applied research proposes a predictive model to estimate the energy potential of by-products such as bagasse, vinasse, molasses, and filter cake, based on historical production data and validated technical coefficients. The model uses milled sugarcane as a baseline and projects its energy conversion under three scenarios through 2030. In its most favorable configuration, the model estimates energy production of up to 15.5 billion Nm3 of biogas in Cuba and 9.9 billion in Peru. The model's architecture includes four residual biomass flows and bioenergy conversion factors applicable to electricity generation. It is validated using national statistical series from 2000 to 2018 and presents relative errors below 5%. Cuba, with a peak of over 13,000 GWh of electricity from bagasse, and Peru, with a stable output between 6500 and 7500 GWh, reflect the highest and lowest projected energy utilization, respectively. Bagasse accounts for over 60% of the total estimated energy contribution. This modeling tool is fundamental for advancing a transition toward a circular economy, as it helps mitigate environmental impacts, improve agroindustrial waste management, and guide sustainable policies in sugarcane-based contexts.
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Risk Analysis in Microfinance Using Machine Learning and Potential Integration with Artificial Intelligence Agent
(Universidad del Pacifico, 2026-01-01)
This study proposes a comprehensive approach for the early detection of default risk in microfinance portfolios, combining machine learning techniques with historical analysis of clients' payment behavior. A database of more than 50,000 microcredits granted in Peru by a microfinance institution in Huancayo (2019–2021) was used, constructing a risk indicator based on the proportion of days in arrears relative to the agreed payment frequency, with a critical threshold of 25% of the installment period. This criterion differentiates clients with a higher propensity to default without penalizing minor delays, improving analytical accuracy. The study focuses on microenterprises and informal entrepreneurs, traditionally excluded from formal banking. It provides predictive tools adapted to segments with limited credit history, fostering financial inclusion and strengthening risk management in microfinance institutions. Four predictive models were evaluated, representing the main families of supervised learning: Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) for Boosting, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) for Bayesian ensembles, Random Forest (RF) for Bagging, and Support Vector Machines (SVM) as optimal margin classifiers. This selection allows contrasting methodologies and identifying the most suitable approach for the microfinance context. The use of supervised learning is justified because the problem has historical labels of default and non-default, enabling predictions directly applicable to credit decision-making. Performance was assessed using metrics such as Cohen's Kappa, Geometric Mean, and F1-score. Results show that GBM delivers the most consistent performance, BART achieves the best F1-score, and SVM excels in geometric precision. These findings validate the effectiveness of supervised learning in segmenting credit risk, optimizing operational management, and laying the foundation for incorporating artificial intelligence agents to monitor payments in real time and reduce losses from default.
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Mathematical Model to Improve Energy Efficiency in Hammer Mills and Its Use in the Feed Industry: Analysis and Validation in a Case Study in Cuba
(Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), 2025-05-01)
The feed industry is characterized by high energy consumption during the grinding stage, where hammer mills can account for up to 50% of total electricity usage; furthermore, efficiency analyses are based only on the classical equations reported in the literature. In this context, the present theoretical-applied research aimed to improve the efficiency of a plant operating below its nominal capacity. To achieve this, a comprehensive mathematical model was developed, integrating power and grain disintegration equations while overcoming the limitations of classical comminution theories. The model incorporates key factors such as feed rate, moisture content, absorbed power and hammer wear. Additionally, specific correction factors for temperature (Kt) and mechanical degradation (Kd) were introduced to accurately represent real operating conditions. The study was based on extensive measurements of electrical current, power factor, energy consumption, particle size distribution and thermal variations under different load conditions. The statistical analysis, which included ANOVA, ANCOVA and multiple regressions, demonstrated a predictive accuracy of 98% (R2) and a pseudo-R2 of 89%. This high correlation allowed for an 18% reduction in energy consumption equivalent to 4 kWh/t and up to a 30% improvement in particle size uniformity, surpassing typical factory performance. The findings highlight that integrating operational, thermodynamic and wear-related factors enhances the robustness of the model, promoting more reliable energy-management practices in hammer mills. Consequently, the results confirm that the developed model serves as a scientifically robust, efficient and applicable tool for improving energy efficiency and reducing environmental impacts in the agri-food industry.
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