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Item type:Publication, Financial development, financial inclusion and informality: New international evidence(World Scientific, 2022-09-01)This paper explores the empirical relationship between informality and several indicators of financial development (FD) and financial inclusion (FI). We exploit a panel of 152 countries with annual information between 1991 and 2017. Using panel cointegration techniques, we find evidence of a negative long-run relationship between informality and FD/FI for different groups of countries. Moreover, exogeneity tests indicate that some FD/FI indicators cause less informality. Specifically, we find that in developing countries FD reduces informality when measured as “financial credit” and “bank credit”, whereas FI reduces informality when measured as “number of bank accounts”. These results suggest that higher credit and more bank accounts have contributed to reducing informality in developing countries in the long run. Additionally, we find evidence of double causality between informality and other FD/FI indicators in developing and Latin American countries. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Informality and tax refund in Peru’s intercity passenger ground transport market: An empirical appraisal(Springer Science+Business Media, 2022-07-19)This paper studies whether Peru’s excise tax refund of 30% for fuel purchases has had the effect of increasing formalization in the intercity passenger ground transport market and whether the resulting tax expenditure has been fruitful in increasing investment in vehicles. Based on a partial equilibrium market framework, transport operators are segmented among formal, informal and illegal operators, and a new methodology to measure how the tax refund makes these operators change their market shares is perfected. Evidence shows that the tax refund has worked by augmenting the market share of formal but not informal operators, thus increasing the overall formalization of the passenger transport market. This contradicts the Ministry of Finance impact evaluation asserting that market formalization has not occurred because informal operators did not take advantage of the tax refund and did not convert into formal operators. An epilogue challenges a 2020 government decree establishing a new tax refund no longer intended to reduce informality but rather to reduce accident rates. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The Tax Elasticity of Formal Work in Sub-Saharan African Countries(Taylor & Francis, 2023-12-13)When seeking to increase their tax revenues, policy makers face a likely tradeoff between decreasing personal income tax rates (making formalizing more attractive and potentially contributing to revenue) and alternatively raising tax rates (potentially slowing down the formalization of the economy if people prefer informal employment).Evidence on formal versus informal earnings and job characteristics in different sectors is limited in African countries, and in particular very little is known about the impact of tax changes on the extent of informality.This paper therefore estimates the personal income tax responsiveness of the extensive margin of formality, i.e. the propensity to be a formal as opposed to an informal worker, for Ghana, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda, using repeated cross-sections of household data and applying grouping estimator techniques.Perhaps because of labour demand constraints and other frictions, the paper finds non-significant relations between the formal employment share and the formal-informal earnings differences. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Alluvial Gold Mining, Conflicts, and State Intervention in Peru's Southern Amazonia(Elsevier Ltd, 2023-03-01)Artisanal and small-scale mining is one of the most degrading activities in the southern Peruvian Amazonia and its uncontrolled expansion has sparked conflicts over its exploitation, the distribution of profits, and their impacts. To analyze how State actions and other factors have triggered its misgovernment, conflicts, and environmental degradation, we constructed a chronology of events related to territorial occupation, gold exploitation, conflict evolution, and state intervention. The overlapping rights that the government assigns to the territory is one of the most controversial actions. For this reason the spatial distribution of mining, forestry, conservation, and property rights was analyzed using QGIS software. As results, we identified places with up to four rights or uses assigned by government institutions and state interventions that compound informality and chaos in the area. We conclude that the main causes of conflicts and misrule stem from weak state, evidenced by deficient services provided, the concession of incompatible usage rights over a single territory, and the enactment of regulations for purposes other than the public good. Finally, mining formalization has not been successful, because formality does not offer major advantages to the miners, being costly and bureaucratic, while informality is not an inconvenience for miners. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The order behind disorder: informality, power, and the resilience of a transport policy trap in Lima, Peru(Elsevier BV, 2026-05-01)Massive internal migration in the sixties, a severe economic and social crisis in the eighties, and a radical neoliberal transport reform adopted in 1991 (Legislative Decree N° 651–1991) led to the emergence of a disorganized, inefficient, and costly transport system in Lima, Peru. In dialogue with the business power and policy feedback literature, we show that this system is rooted in the empowerment of leading private formal and informal transport actors and in the weakening of state transport control offices. These arrangements constitute what experts call a “policy trap,” a situation in which a trajectory is adopted that is difficult to escape due to prior reforms, public policies, and/or government decisions (Holland, 2017). This article analyzes two reform attempts to break the policy trap: the Integrated Transportation System (SIT) reform of 2011 and the creation of the Urban Transport Authority (ATU) in 2018. By focusing on the implementation of these reforms, we demonstrate the structural and instrumental power of informal and low-quality formal actors that sustain the system's continuity, particularly their successful strategies of resistance and adaptation to the reforms. We document how these actors engage politically to oppose the implementation of reforms, lobby and support political actors who can represent their interests, and adopt new modes of informal transport to circumvent or profit from the new conditions promoted by the reforms. These findings exemplify the considerable challenges that middle- and low-income states face in adopting and sustaining reforms to regulate informal activities, such as transport.1