3. Producción
Browse
3 results
Search Results
- Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and stunting in children under 5 years in Peru: a double-difference analysis(Elsevier, 2020-04-01)Background The 1997–98 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was one of the most important natural disasters in 20th century Peru, associated with heavy rainfall and flooding. It affected 502 000 people, ruined 944 km of roads, and damaged 580 health centres and 956 schools. Almost a quarter of all people affected (23%) came from Piura, in the northwest of Peru. In this study, we assessed the association between the 1997–98 ENSO and growth stunting in children younger than 5 years on Peru's north coast. Methods We analysed Peruvian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data, from 1996 and 2000, using a double-difference approach. Our primary outcome was childhood growth stunting, and our exposure was the ENSO phenomenon. The exposed group was from Peru's Piura coast, and the unexposed group was from southern coastal regions, which were less affected by the events associated with ENSO 1997–98. First, we conducted a regional comparison. Secondly, we used propensity score matching (PSM) to explore similarities between the exposed and non-exposed groups. We then estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) of childhood growth stunting using generalised linear models. Finally, we conducted a subanalysis by childhood age. Findings We studied 2270 and 1349 children younger than 5 years from 1996 and 2000, respectively. Regression without matching showed a PR of 1·37 (95% CI 0·93–2·01), and a PSM regression 1-to-2 PR of 1·45 (0·66–3·18), obtaining a PR greater than 1 but with a confidence interval that included the null value. Furthermore, we found a possible effect on children aged 0–11 months. In the regressions without PSM, analysis for this age group showed a PR of 2·48 (1·11–5·54); whereas, after PSM 1-to-2, the PR was 2·69 (1·03–7·03); alternative PSM was also consistent with these results. Analysis of the other age groups yielded results that were not statistically significant. Interpretation Our results suggest that the ENSO phenomenon could have increased childhood stunting on the coast of Piura. More specifically, children who were aged 0 to 11 months during the worst and most disruptive period of the El Niño phenomenon were at increased risk of growth stunting. Our results were consistent with and without PSM. Factors that might have contributed to our results include increased childhood morbidity with concurrent reductions in maternal and familial access to health care, and diminished household incomes due to El Niño's devastating effects during the disaster period. Our findings outline a need to prevent harm to people and their health during weather and natural events associated with ENSO. Specifically, there is a need for childhood-focused social protection systems, especially during critical stages of growth and development. Childhood-focused social protection and delivery systems will be instrumental in preventing downstream effects of similar climatic events. Funding Fogarty 2D43 TW007393. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Water gives, water takes away. Memory, agency and resilience in ENSO-vulnerable historic landscapes in Peru(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2021-01-01)The valleys of the north coast of Peru comprise a rich cultural landscape that over many centuries facilitated the development of complex societies, due to a year-round temperate climate, abundant natural resources and fertile soils. This area is also vulnerable to episodic ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) events, in which elevated sea temperatures and changes in wind patterns lead to intense rains, flooding, droughts and disruptions in the coastal food chain. Historically, El Niño events have varied significantly in intensity, frequency and location, so that while some communities experienced devastation, others benefited from an increase in water, the expansion of green areas and vegetation and the creation of new ecosystems. The societies of the pre-Hispanic period like the Moche, Sicán and Chimú were skilled at understanding, adapting and transforming these diverse territories and in adjusting to the ebbs and flows of water through technological, managerial, religious and performance-based approaches. In times of environmental stress, human sacrifices were a way for people, usually leaders and elites, to commune with their deities to give thanks and ask for relief, while also serving to negotiate and consolidate political and symbolic power, prestige and privilege. These narratives and experiences of the past have the potential to offer modern-day rural and urban communities valuable lessons in rethinking how to live with water and increase resilience, especially in the face of more frequent ENSO events, climate change and urban expansion. Learning from the past in order to ensure a better future, however, also requires consideration of failure, fear and perplexing perceptions of risk. Finally, it is valuable to understand how some markers of social complexity, like deep economic and symbolic ties to a place, and the desire for stability, can hinder flexibility and lead to responses that ultimately increase vulnerability to El Niño events. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The 2022–23 drought in the South American Altiplano: ENSO effects on moisture flux in the western Amazon during the pre-wet season(Elsevier B.V., 2024-09-01)The 2022-23 hydrological year in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopó hydrological system (TDPS) over the South American Altiplano constituted a historically dry period. This drought was particularly severe during the pre-wet season (October–December), when the TDPS and the adjacent Andean-Amazon region experienced as much as 60% reductions in rainfall. Consequently, Titicaca Lake water levels decreased by 0.05 m from December to January, which is part of the rising lake level period of normal conditions. Such conditions have not been seen since the El Niño-related drought of 1982-83. Using a set of hydroclimatic, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and atmospheric reanalysis datasets, we find that this new historical drought was associated with enhanced southerly moisture flux anomalies, reducing the inflow of moisture-laden winds from the Amazon basin to the TDPS. Such anomalies in moisture transport were not seen since at least the 1950s. The atmospheric dynamics associated with this drought are related to La Niña SST anomalies via subtropical teleconnections associated with Rossby wave trains towards South America, further extended by subtropical Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies. This feature reduced the atmospheric moisture inflow from the Amazon and weakened the development of the Bolivian High in the upper troposphere. These results document a new atmospheric mechanism related to extreme droughts in the TDPS associated with La Niña SST anomalies during the pre-wet season. This goes beyond the traditional understanding of El Niño events, especially the strongest ones, being associated with dry conditions in the TDPS during the wet season (December–March).