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Language: search.filters.language.EnglishSubject: search.filters.subject.Consolidation (business)

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    Fiscal rules and public investment: the case of Peru, 2000-2019
    (2021-01-28)
    This article has three goals. First, it describes the genesis of fiscal rules in Peru and its degree of compliance. Second, it estimates the effect of fiscal rules adoption on public investment. Last, it analyzes the impact of alternative fiscal rules on public investment and public debt sustainability. Our main results are as follows. First, the implementation of fiscal rules in the year 2000 caused a 60 to 80 percent fall in public investment relative to several counterfactuals. Second, our DSGE model suggests a Structural Fiscal Rule would have increased the consumers welfare in the period 2000-2019 more than other fiscal designs. This rule reduces the procyclicality of public investment under commodity price shocks and macroeconomic volatility under world interest rate shocks. Third, a Structural Fiscal Rule has the lowest probability of exceeding the current public debt limit (30 percent of GDP), although there is a trade-off between investment-friendly rules and fiscal sustainability issues. Nevertheless, our quantitative results are limited to short spans of analysis. With a long-run perspective, we may say that fiscal rulesdespite constant modifications and recurring non-compliancehave fulfilled their original and most important goal of achieving the consolidation of public finances.
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    A Demand-side Explanation of Offshore Autocratic Assistance: The Case of China and Russia and the Consolidation of Authoritarianism in Venezuela
    (Routledge, 2026-01-01)
    When do authoritarian incumbents request the assistance of autocratic powers located several thousand kilometres away? What type of assistance do they request? While most of the literature focuses on the supply of assistance by autocratic powers, the framework proposed here puts the incumbents that request assistance at the centre. This is tested by looking at the inter-state relations between Nicolás Maduro's regime in Venezuela and two offshore autocratic powers: the People's Republic of China and Russia. We process-trace the different types and intensities of domestic and international threats to the regime's survival, the high-level contacts between the authorities of these regimes and the various types of assistance that Venezuela requested during the period of autocratic consolidation between 2014-23. The proposed demand-side framework is instrumental in understanding offshore autocratic assistance in which the strategic motivations of the autocratic powers for 'promoting authoritarianism' are less clear than in the case of autocratic collaboration within a sphere of influence.