3. Producción
Browse
2024 results
Search Results
- Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, How to develop the capital market?: make countries fitness(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2025-02)This paper examines the relationship between the competitiveness of a country’s productive system and the development of its capital markets. Competitiveness is measured using the Economic Fitness Index (EFI), which assess a country’s ability to produce diversified and complex goods. Analyzing panel data from 98 countries (1997–2022), the study finds a significant positive relationship between productive complexity and capital market development, even when controlling for macroeconomic stability, institutional quality, and banking development. The findings suggest that productive complexity enhances the demand for and supply of financial instruments, fostering deeper capital markets. Robustness checks using the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) confirm these results, underscoring the role of economic sophistication in financial market development. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Regime-Switching, Stochastic Volatility, Fiscal Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-10)Following Chan and Eisenstat (2018a), we use a family of regime-switching models with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (RS-VAR-SV) to analyze the evolution of fiscal shocks impacts on Peru's economic growth from 1995Q1 to 2019Q4. Key findings include: (i) identification of two distinct economic regimes with different macroeconomic fundamentals tied to improvements in fiscal and monetary policy; (ii) enhanced model fi with the inclusion of stochastic volatility; (iii) a positive trend in the size of spending multipliers, though they remain below unity; (iv) during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, capital expenditure shocks mitigated the decline in economic growth by 2 percentage points, highlighting their counter-cyclical potential. These findings are corroborated by robustness checks, which include changes in priors, variable reordering, adjustments in external and demand variables, and extending the sample to 2022Q4 to encompass the COVID-19 crisis. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Modeling the trend, persistence, and volatility of inflation in Pacific Alliance countries: an empirical application using a model with inflation bands(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-02)This paper estimates and analyzes the dynamics of trend inflation, as well as the persistence and volatility of the inflation gap in the Pacific Alliance countries (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru). For this purpose, the econometric approach is based on methodologies proposed by Stock and Watson (2007) and Chan et al. (2013). Among these, the AR-Trend-Bound model considers the implications of inflation targeting in estimating the unobserved components of inflation. The results indicate that this model effectively allocates most of the permanent component to trend inflation. Additionally, a decreasing trend in inflation in the 1990s, stabilization in the first two decades of the 21st century, and a growing trend inflation following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic are observed in all four countries. The low levels of inflation gap persistence prior to the pandemic reflect the effectiveness of central banks in maintaining inflation close to its trend level. Finally, the volatility of the inflation gap identifies the “Great Moderation” of inflation, with increases in volatility during the pandemic reaching levels similar to those estimated in the 1990s. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The role of technology extension and transfer in firms’ innovation and productivity in Peru(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2025)This study examines how technology extension and transfer services (TETS) drive firm-level innovation and productivity. Since research and development (R&D) investments are subject to market failure, engaging with external agents enables firms to innovate at lower risk and cost. Using data from Peru’s National Innovation Survey (ENI), we apply the Crépon, Duguet, and Mairesse (CDM) model alongside propensity score matching (PSM) to enhance the reliability of our results. Additionally, we employ the generalized propensity score (GPS) method to analyze the sensitivity of innovation and sales outcomes to varying investment levels. The findings confirm that investment in training and external R&D significantly enhances innovation, thereby boosting labor productivity. However, this relationship is nonlinear, suggesting the presence of investment thresholds required to maximize impact. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Perceptions of own social class and local affluence: Effects on preferences for redistribution(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2025-11)We conducted an online survey experiment in Lima to study how perceptions of social class shape support for economic redistribution. Participants were randomly informed about either their actual socio-economic status (SES) or the true share of affluent households in their district. Respondents substantially overestimated their own SES and, to a lesser extent, the prevalence of affluent households. Correctingthese misperceptions generally increased support for redistribution, with no effect on a wealth-tax proposal. Effects were especially strong when respondents had misjudged their SES by two or more levels: even those predisposed against redistribution (e.g., right-leaning, individualistic, or sceptical of government) increased their support. Similar patterns also emerged when correcting beliefs about the local distribution of SES. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Public Debt Dynamics and Sustainability: A Framework for Analysis(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento Académico de Economía, 2024-12)This paper presents a macro-fiscal model for examining the public sector primary surplus and the dynamics and sustainability of public debt in closed and open economies. The model simulates how changes in the primary surplus affect public debt, highlighting key differences between these economic contexts. Notably, open economies can finance fiscal deficits with foreign currency-denominated debt, introducing additional sources of instability in public debt dynamics. The analysis demonstrates how a permanent reduction in the primary surplus undermines public debt sustainability, with outcomes shaped by economic conditions and the features of open and closed economies. Furthermore, it confirms that delays in implementing fiscal adjustments following a destabilizing shock result in increasingly severe corrective measures over time. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, External Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Peru: Empirical Evidence using Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Models(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-01)We employ a family of mixture innovation, time-varying parameter VAR models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact of external shocks on Peru’s GDP growth, inflation, and interest rate from 1998Q1 to 2019Q4. Our key findings are as follows: (i) the model best fitting the data features time-varying parameters and variances with a certain likelihood; (ii) impulse-response functions reveal that a 1% increase in the growth rate of Peru’s major trading partners (China and the U.S.) leads to a domestic GDP growth expansion of 0.65% and 0.21%, respectively; (iii) the forecast error variance decomposition shows that external shocks account for 65% of the long-term variability in output, 65% in inflation, and 67% in the interest rate; (iv) historical decomposition indicates that external shocks account for 50% of domestic GDP growth, particularly from 2002 onward. Lastly, we validate the results obtained in the primary specification through four robustness exercises - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Experiments on the Different Numbers of Bidders in Sequential Auctions(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-01)In a second-price sequential auction with global and local bidders, we analyze the correct selling order of goods when the number of bidders in each leg of the auction is different with laboratory experiments. Theoretically, selling the good with a large number of bidders last should generate an (almost) efficient outcome but selling it first should result in an inefficient outcome with a positive probability. Our experimental results show that selling that good last generates a more efficient outcome than selling it first. Hence, the experimental results show that the selling order has to be taken into account while designing a sequential auction. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Regional Financial Development and Micro and Small Enterprises in Peru(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-01)Empirical studies suggest that credit constraints prevent the development of Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs). This study contributes to the analysis by exploring whether higher regional financial development affects the creation and growth of MSEs in Peru. Based on four cross-sectional databases, mainly the 2018 National Household Survey on Living Conditions and Poverty, this paper finds that there is a positive impact on entrepreneur profits; however, the effect is negative on the likelihood of running a business. Interactions between informality and financial frictions may explain this result. Informal financing emerges as an alternative in this context. This study addresses endogeneity issues by using the number of commercial bank branches per 1,000 inhabitants in 1995 as an instrument of the degree of regional financial development in 2018. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Motherly Care: The impacts of exiting a childcare program on child and maternal health(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento Académico de Economía., 2025-09)We investigate the unintended impacts of exiting Peru’s Cuna Más public childcare program on child and maternal health. With increased public childcare use in developing countries, understanding the effects of program exit is critical. We use Cuna Más’ strict age-based graduation rule to identify causal impacts, leveraging comprehensive data from the Demographic and Family Health Survey for the period 2015-2019. Our results suggest that mothers prioritize their children’s health over their own upon program exit. While maternal mental health shows a notable decline, children’s health remains unaffected. These results have important policy implications, highlighting the need for post-program transitional support to mitigate hidden costs for mothers and enhance the positive outcomes children gain during program participation.