3. Producción

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    Fluctuaciones macroeconómicas en la economía peruana, 1950-1990
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1996)
    The main purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: which factors explain the persistence of fluctuation in the Peruvian economy? We answer it constructing a non-linear deterministic dynamical system obtaining fluctuations as a result of structural aspect of the Peruvian economy. We use in a dynamic framework the “Diaz-Alejandro” and “Foreign Exchange restrain” effects.
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    La macroeconomía de una economía abierta en el corto plazo : el modelo Mundell-Fleming
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2003)
    In this paper we present the Mundell – Fleming model for a regime of fixed and flexible exchange rate, in a context of perfect capital mobility. In the first part we present the model for the case of a fixed exchange – regime, in which the basic equations will be introduced describing the market for goods, the monetary market, the domestic market of bonds and the external bond market; as well as the interaction mechanisms between this markets. There will be carried out three simulation exercises, in which the effects will be seen on the production, the international reserves and the domestic interest rate of an expanding fiscal police, a devaluation and an increment of the external interest rate. In the second part we will develop the model for the case of a flexible exchange – regime, and the effects of fiscal and monetary policy, and of an increment of the external interest rate on production, domestic interest rates and the exchange rate will be examined.
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    El estado actual de la teoría macroeconómica
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2004)
    This paper describes the evolution of macroeconomic theory in both closed and open economies. In the first section we present the evolution of the theory of a closed economy ¾economies that do not have international trade; nor do it have links to the international financial markets. Since Keynes, the neoclassical synthesis, the monetarists, the revolution of rational expectations, until the most recent literature such as the real business cycle theory and the new Keynesian economics. In the second section we present the evolution of the theory of an open economy. Since Hume, the work of Mundell and Fleming, the monetary approach of the balance of payments, the overshooting and the Open Economy Macroeconomics by Rudiger Dornbusch, until the most recent literature developed in the Foundations of International Macroeconomics by Obstfeld and Rogoff. As is evident, this presentation is not intended to be comprehensive in its coverage of the topics.
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    La macroeconomía de una economía abierta: el mercado de trabajo y la oferta agregada
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2003)
    In this paper we study the operation of the labor market, of which is derived the curve of aggregate supply, for the case of a closed and open economy, in the short, medium and Iong term. In an open economy, an important part of the production costs is derived of the use of imported inputs in the fabrication of the products. Therefore, the domestic level of prices, besides depending on the level of the nominal wage, is also associated to factors like the exchange rate or to the international price of the imported inputs. In the short term, since the nominal wage and the exchange rate are independent of the activity level, the level of prices is constant and therefore the aggregate supply is perfectly elastic. In the medium term, an increment of the level of economic activity, when reducing the unemployment rate, produces an increment of the wages, that which elevates the costs of production of the companies and the level of prices of the economy. Therefore, the companies are willing to offer a bigger production but at a higher level of prices. In the long term, the prices don’t influence in the level of economic activity, this implies that the aggregate supply is perfectly inelastic. After presenting the different versions of the aggregate supply, in the final part of the paper we carried out exercises of comparative static to show the effects in the aggregate supply of the technological change and the increment of the international price of the petroleum.
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    La macroeconomía de una economía abierta en el corto plazo: del modelo Mundell – Fleming a la demanda agregada
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2003)
    In this paper the Mundell – Fleming model is used to derive the curve of the aggregate demand for regimens of fixed and flexible exchange rates, in a context of perfect capital mobility. A curve of perfectly elastic aggregate supply will be supposed. Though, all increment of the aggregate demand will be translated in a variation of the production of the same magnitude to return to the equilibrium, while the price level stays constant. The price level will be introduced in an explicit way, since the analysis requires that one works in the plane of the demanded production and the price level. The form of incorporating it will be through the real exchange rate, in the market for goods; and through the nominal demand of money, in the monetary market.
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    Macroeconomía Keynesiana de la determinación de los niveles de producción y empleo
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1999)
    Different keynesian models of output and employment determination are examined in this essay: from simple keynesian model to models with social classes and two and three economic sectors. The last ones belong to Kalecki, Kaldor, Pasinetti and Nell. In all of these models the principle of effective demand is corroborated: if there is a local producer sector of capital goods, investment creates its own saving through the multiplier. Capitalists get what they spend while workers spend what they get. Several basic concepts are analyzed in this essay: aggregate demand and aggregate supply, different approaches to consumption, the marginal efficiency of capital, Tobin´s q, acceleration principle, and cycles related to the accelerator and the multiplier.
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    Agregados macroeconómicos y contabilidad nacional
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1999)
    This essay is concerned with the basic concepts of National Income and Product Accounts, which are used mostly for macroeconomic analysis. The Input-Output Accounts are also analyzed in order to discuss, once again, the different methods of GDP estimation. Moreover, Monetary Flows and Balance of Payments Accounts are presented emphasizing on their relationships. Finally, several index numbers are examined comparing their characteristics and differences.
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    Macroeconomía: breve historia y conceptos básicos
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1999)
    This essay is an introduction to macroeconomics. It starts with a brief history of this branch of economic science from Petty, Cantillon and Hume contributions until the recent propositions of the so-called New “Classical” Macroeconomics. Certainly, it is also analyzed the classic, neoclassic, keynesian and monetarist contributions to macroeconomics analysis. Moreover, it contains a quick presentation of basic macroeconomic concepts and variables, and others associated to model techniques. The static analysis is distinguished from dynamics, and at the same time it is explained the importance of principle of correspondence for comparative static.
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    Reformas estructurales y políticas macroeconómicas en el Perú : 1990-1996
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1997)
    This paper describes the neoliberal experiment of the 90’s, placing it in its historical context. The central hypothesis of the document is that the Peruvian economy of the 90s lacks an operative system of fiscal and monetary policies that functions without producing huge disruptions in the level of economic activity. The monetary authority does no have the basic instruments that normally have been used to manage the external adverse shocks in the Peruvian economy, as a consequence of the two structural reforms carried out on the financial sphere: the dollarization of the banking system and the opening of the capital account.
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    Los factores estructurales y la dinámica macroeconómica : un enfoque de brechas
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1996)
    This paper identify the external constraint like a structural problem, and in the first part we make a book review about some authors who had fundamental this posture. We analyze the principal macroeconomic indicators in the last 23 years and we apply a three gap-model that, because its structure, do not give an adequate valuation to the external gap, in preference to fiscal and internal gap. Instead of, the empirical evidence shows the importance of the external limit in this period. That has consistency whit the conceptual interpretation we have at the beginning.