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Item type:Publication, The Monetary and Fiscal History of Peru, 1960-2017: Radical Policy Experiments, Inflation and Stabilization(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2018-12)We show that Peru’s chronic inflation through the 1970s and 1980s was the result of the need for inflationary taxation in a regime of fiscal dominance of monetary policy. Hyperinflation occurred when debt accumulation became unavailable, and a populist administration engaged in a counterproductive policy of price controls and loose credit. We interpret the fiscal difficulties preceding the stabilization as a process of social learning to live within the realities of fiscal budget balance. The credibility of the policy regime change in the 1990s may be linked ultimately to the change in public opinion giving proper incentives to politicians, after the traumatic consequences of the hyperstagflation of 1987–1990. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Evaluation of wavelet - based core inflation measures : evidence form Peru(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2011)Under inflation targeting and other related monetary policy regimes, the identification of non-transitory inflation and forecasts about future inflation constitute key ingredients for monetary policy decisions. In practice, central banks perform these tasks using so-called core inflation measures”. In this paper we construct alternative core inflation measures using wavelet functions and multiresolution analysis (MRA), and then evaluate their relevance for monetary policy. The construction of wavelet-based core inflation measures (WIMs) is relatively new in the literature and their assessment has not been addressed formally, this paper being the first attempt to perform both tasks for the case of Peru. Another main contribution of this paper is that it proposes two alternative criteria for evaluating core inflation measures: (i) a VAR-based long-run criterion, and (ii) forecast-based criteria. Evidence from Peru shows that WIMs are superior in terms of long-run performance, and that they could improve short-term (up-to-6-months) inflation forecasts. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The dynamic relationship between stock market development and economic activity: evidence from Perú, 1965-2011(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2013)We use real GDP per capita and three standard indicators of stock market development: value traded/GDP, market capitalization/GDP and turnover to study the short-run link between the stock market and economic activity in Peru. Based on annual time series data for the period 1965-2011, we estimate vector autoregressions (VARs) and identify approximate measures of stock market shocks using long-run restrictions. The results can be summarized as follows: (i) stock market indicators contribute to predict real GDP per capita growth only since the early 1990’s; (ii) a stock market shock has signi cant short-run e ects on real GDP per capita; however, its contribution to output dynamics has been small.The results imply that policy actions aimed at further developing the Peruvian stock market do have a signi cant positive impact on the dynamics of economic growth. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Regímenes cambiarios y desempeño macroeconómico: una evaluación de la literatura(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2013)This paper provides an assessment of the theoretic and empirical literature about the relationship between exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic performance. The main conclusion is that the distinction between flex and floating regimes seems to be important for developed economies but not for developing countries. In particular, flexible exchange rate regimes seem to be more favourable for an emerging economy than the fi xed regime is, both at the theoretical and empirical level. However, current evidence is not robust to the exchange rate regime classi cation method. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Real output costs of financial crises: a loss distribution approach(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2012)We study cross-country GDP losses due to financial crises in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). We perform the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) to estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP loss probability density function and the percentiles associated to extreme events due to financial crises. We find that output losses arising from financial crises are strongly heterogeneous and that currency crises lead to smaller output losses than debt and banking crises. Extreme global financial crises episodes, occurring with a one percent probability every five years, lead to losses between 2.95% and 4.54% of world GDP. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, ¿Qué tan rígidos son los precios en línea? Evidencia para Perú usando Big Data(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2021-05)Motivado por el desarrollo del comercio electrónico y la importancia de la rigidez de precios para explicar los efectos reales de choques monetarios, el presente trabajo de investigación tiene como objetivo evaluar el grado de rigidez de los precios en línea en el Perú. Para ello, se analizan 4.5 millones de precios publicados diariamente en la pagina web de una tienda por departamentos que, durante el periodo de análisis, tuvo una participación de mercado de aproximadamente 50 por ciento. Esta gran cantidad de datos o “big data” fueron obtenidos a través de la técnica de raspado de datos de la web o “web scraping”, la cual fue aplicada diariamente entre los años 2016 y 2020. Tomando en cuenta la frecuencia de cambio de precios y la duración de los mismos, los resultados indican que los precios en línea en el Per 'u son menos rígidos que en otros países.