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Item type:Publication, How Does China Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Impact Copper-Firms’ Stock Returns and Copper Prices Returns?(Emerald Publishing, 2023-06-29)This study focuses on how China EPU may impact copper-firms stock returns and also how China EPU mediates between stock returns and copper prices returns. Design/methodology/approach: The sample consists of 44 copper firms from January 2011 to March 2022. The study also considers a subsample of 29 net-exporters countries. Panel data methodology is used, allowing to control for unobservable heterogeneity and endogeneity problems. The equations are estimated through a dynamic panel using the generalized methods of moments (GMM). Findings: China EPU has a negative and statistically significant relationship with stock returns. Copper price returns are positively associated with stock returns. This research also considers two scenarios: high and low levels of China EPU. For high levels of China EPU states it is reported a negative relationship between stock returns and China EPU and copper price returns show a positive relationship with stock returns. Research limitations/implications: There is need to explore other metals for what China exhibits a high demand and observe if China EPU and Global EPU have similar impacts on stock returns. It will be useful to identify main firm's consumers of copper and these other metals to explore the relationship between EPU and stock returns. Originality/value: To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that analyzes China EPU index and its impact on both copper-firms stocks returns and on changes in copper prices. This is done using all public copper firms worldwide. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, How Does Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Impact Copper-Firms’ Stock Returns? International Evidence(Elsevier Ltd, 2023-03-01)Using monthly data, we study 43 copper firms between January 2011 and March 2022. We analyze how copper-firms stock returns depend on copper-spot prices returns. Nevertheless, the main contribution of this article is to study how changes in Global EPU (GEPU) and Local EPU may impact on copper-firms stock returns and how both of them may influence the sensitivity of stock returns to copper prices returns. We find that both GEPU and Local EPU have a statistically significant and negative impact on stock returns. We also study regimes of high and low levels of EPU (Global and Local). For high levels of GEPU we find a negative relationship between stock returns and GEPU and for low levels of GEPU we detect a positive relationship. We also consider how high levels and low levels of Local EPU impact the relationship between copper spot returns and stock returns. When there are high levels of GEPU the sensitivity of stock returns to copper spot returns increases and the opposite is verified when there are low levels of GEPU. Using Local EPU we do not find significant changes in the sensitivity of stock returns to copper spot returns. As robustness test, we consider firms from other four industries (Gold, Oil, Electric Distribution and Gas Distribution). Most of the results show different behavior in each industry regarding the association between EPU and stock returns. We also run the main equations considering a six-factor model for returns (five factors from Fama and French) and the momentum factor. Finally, we do the analysis for copper future returns (90 days and 15 months), reporting similar results. We do not find significant changes in the results after doing all the robustness checking.