3. Producción
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Item type:Publication, Crisis de balanza de pagos : el rol de los factores externos(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1998)This paper presents a balance-of-payments crises model –in the line of the “first-generation” models– in order to estimate the moment in which the fixed exchange rate collapse occurs. In contrast to the standard literature about balance-of-payments crises –which emphasizes the role of macroeconomic policy as a source of fixed exchange rate crises–, this paper shows that, under fixed exchange rate and perfect capital mobility, an adverse international context (like an increase in the international interest rate) could yield a balance–of-payments crises similar to those generated by macroeconomic policy. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Los determinantes del tipo de cambio y la tasa de interés en una economía con un sistema bancario dolarizado(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1998)This paper presents a short run macrofinancial model that brings out some features of the Peruvian economy: the weight of commercial banks in the financial system, the dollarization of bank deposits and loans, short term capital flow to fund local banks, and a high sensitivity of prices to the rate of exchange. The model allows the identification of the effects of monetary policy or international interest rates on the rate of exchange, domestic interest rates and the inflation. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, El modelo Mundel-Fleming: una versión intertemporal(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, Económicas, Políticas y Antropológicas - CISEPA, 2000)This paper presents an intertemporal version of the Mundell-Fleming model, with free capital movements and floating exchange rate. The model includes two subsystems, one for each period, that allows exchange rate, production, and interest rate expectations to be determined, under perfect foresight, without losing the simplicity and transparency of the comparative static. The connection between the first period and the second period is given according to the expectation that the public makes in the first period about some variables of the second period. These ones, at the same time, are the variables that are determined on the second period. The model allows the identification of the effects of an expected monetary policy in the future (period 2) on the production, exchange rate, and the interest rate in the present (period 1). These results differ from Sargent and Wallace´s proposition (1975), where expected monetary policy has no effects on the economy activity; but these results are like Fischer´s model (1977), where monetary policy, even if it is expected, does have effects on the real variables such as production.