3. Producción
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Item type:Publication, El modelo IS-LM : una versión para el Perú(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1992)How can the IS-LM logical structure be used advantageously to build a macroeconomic model that addresses some present Peruvian economic issues? The institutional features of the Peruvian economy underpinning this evolution are a dollarized private sector, the free exchange rate and output and prices’s sensitivity to the floating exchange rate. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, La efectividad de la política fiscal en el Perú: 1980-2006(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, Económicas, Políticas y Antropológicas - CISEPA, 2008)Is there a connection between fiscal policy and the level of economic activity in Peru? The authors analyze Peruvian economic policy in 1980-1990 and 1990-2006 using a theoretical model linking both elements and fusing the contractionary or expansionary effects of fiscal policy, according to the initial state of public finances. The results suggest that in 1980-1990 fiscal policy exerted a weak effect, while between 1990-2006 -a period of strengthening the power of government finance fiscal policy has been greater. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Crecimiento en una economía abierta: un marco de análisis para el Perú(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2001)In this paper we present a review of the literature of economic growth for open economies. Then, from this review, we build a model of economic growth which take into account the main features of the Peruvian economy such as small economy, openness in goods and financial markets, strong link between imports and economic activity, exogenous technological change, exogenous financial capital inflows, importance of the external constraint on the evolution of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and the negative relationship between domestic saving and capital inflows. The model has two basic equations: the internal equilibrium equation and the external equilibrium equation. The saving and investment equality determines per capita capital, and, given a production function, per capita GDP as well; while the equilibrium of the balance of payments determines real exchange rate. Thus this model allow us to show the effects of the internal factors such as rate of saving and propensity to import as well as the effects of the factors related to the international context such as exports and capital inflows on per capita capital (GDP) and real exchange rate. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, La efectividad de la Política Fiscal en el Perú: 1980-2006(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2008)The aim of this document is to establish the relationship between fiscal policy and the level of economic activity. On the theoretical ground, this is done using a model that links fiscal policy with economic activity, mixing the contractive and/or expansionary effects of a fiscal expansion, given the initial situation of fiscal accounts. On the empirical ground, this is done for the period 1980-2006, testing the predictions produced by the theoretical model. The main results suggest that during the period 1980-1990, characterized by the fragility of the fiscal accounts, fiscal policy had a weak effect on the level of economic activity, whereas during the period 1990-2006, considered of improvement of fiscal accounts, the effect of fiscal policy is stronger. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, La macroeconomía de una economía abierta en el corto plazo : el modelo Mundell-Fleming(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2003)In this paper we present the Mundell – Fleming model for a regime of fixed and flexible exchange rate, in a context of perfect capital mobility. In the first part we present the model for the case of a fixed exchange – regime, in which the basic equations will be introduced describing the market for goods, the monetary market, the domestic market of bonds and the external bond market; as well as the interaction mechanisms between this markets. There will be carried out three simulation exercises, in which the effects will be seen on the production, the international reserves and the domestic interest rate of an expanding fiscal police, a devaluation and an increment of the external interest rate. In the second part we will develop the model for the case of a flexible exchange – regime, and the effects of fiscal and monetary policy, and of an increment of the external interest rate on production, domestic interest rates and the exchange rate will be examined. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Dinero e inflación: el overshooting y el canal del tipo de cambio(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2005)In this paper we extend the Dornbusch’s model (1976), the overshooting of the exchange rate, in two directions. First, as it was modeled by Wilson (1979), we assume that agents have rational expectations, i.e. perfect foresight in a deterministic model. In this framework, we analyze the effects of unanticipated and anticipated economic policies. Second, this model tries to reproduce the stylized fact that, in an opened economy under a regime of flexible exchange rate, the impact of an expansionary monetary policy over prices can be immediate, through the effect in the exchange rate. With this goal, the Dornbusch’s original model has been extended to take into account the depreciation rate of the exchange rate, as an argument of the Phillip’s Curve. In this extension we assume, as in the basic model, that there is no adjustment in prices due to the excess of demand in the good market, in the short run; while the adjustment that is generated by the movement of the exchange rate is instantaneous. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, El estado actual de la teoría macroeconómica(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2004)This paper describes the evolution of macroeconomic theory in both closed and open economies. In the first section we present the evolution of the theory of a closed economy ¾economies that do not have international trade; nor do it have links to the international financial markets. Since Keynes, the neoclassical synthesis, the monetarists, the revolution of rational expectations, until the most recent literature such as the real business cycle theory and the new Keynesian economics. In the second section we present the evolution of the theory of an open economy. Since Hume, the work of Mundell and Fleming, the monetary approach of the balance of payments, the overshooting and the Open Economy Macroeconomics by Rudiger Dornbusch, until the most recent literature developed in the Foundations of International Macroeconomics by Obstfeld and Rogoff. As is evident, this presentation is not intended to be comprehensive in its coverage of the topics. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Crisis de balanza de pagos : el rol de los factores externos(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1998)This paper presents a balance-of-payments crises model –in the line of the “first-generation” models– in order to estimate the moment in which the fixed exchange rate collapse occurs. In contrast to the standard literature about balance-of-payments crises –which emphasizes the role of macroeconomic policy as a source of fixed exchange rate crises–, this paper shows that, under fixed exchange rate and perfect capital mobility, an adverse international context (like an increase in the international interest rate) could yield a balance–of-payments crises similar to those generated by macroeconomic policy. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Los determinantes del tipo de cambio y la tasa de interés en una economía con un sistema bancario dolarizado(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1998)This paper presents a short run macrofinancial model that brings out some features of the Peruvian economy: the weight of commercial banks in the financial system, the dollarization of bank deposits and loans, short term capital flow to fund local banks, and a high sensitivity of prices to the rate of exchange. The model allows the identification of the effects of monetary policy or international interest rates on the rate of exchange, domestic interest rates and the inflation. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, El modelo Mundel-Fleming: una versión intertemporal(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, Económicas, Políticas y Antropológicas - CISEPA, 2000)This paper presents an intertemporal version of the Mundell-Fleming model, with free capital movements and floating exchange rate. The model includes two subsystems, one for each period, that allows exchange rate, production, and interest rate expectations to be determined, under perfect foresight, without losing the simplicity and transparency of the comparative static. The connection between the first period and the second period is given according to the expectation that the public makes in the first period about some variables of the second period. These ones, at the same time, are the variables that are determined on the second period. The model allows the identification of the effects of an expected monetary policy in the future (period 2) on the production, exchange rate, and the interest rate in the present (period 1). These results differ from Sargent and Wallace´s proposition (1975), where expected monetary policy has no effects on the economy activity; but these results are like Fischer´s model (1977), where monetary policy, even if it is expected, does have effects on the real variables such as production.
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