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Item type:Publication, Reglas fiscales, reglas monetarias y shocks externos en una economía de exportaciones primarias: Un modelo para América Latina y el Caribe.(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2015)The macroeconomic performance of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is closely linked to the evolution of the world economy. The lost decade of the eighties cannot be explained by abstracting it from the deterioration in the terms of trade and the rising interest rates in the developed world that occurred during that period. Nor can the golden decade of 2002 to 2011 be understood without considering the significant improvement in the terms of trade and the considerable reduction in international interest rates. Finally, it is not possible to understand the slowdown in economic growth in LAC since 2011 by ignoring the deterioration of the region’s terms of trade and rising global interest rates. This article discusses the connections to the global economy of a small, open, primary-export economy dependent on external financing, where monetary policy operates under an inflation-targeting scheme; the reference rate for interbank markets is a policy instrument; and fiscal policy works by imposing a limit on the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP. The model allows us to evaluate the effects of changes in the prices of export commodities and global interest rates, as well as the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on output, price level, exchange rate, and the domestic interest rate. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, ¿Qué hubiera pasado en 2014-2016 si..? Un modelo macroeconométrico para el Perú(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2018-01)Este documento presenta un modelo macro-econométrico para la economía peruana, de pequeña escala, estimado con datos trimestrales para el periodo 2003-16, que permite simular el impacto que tienen los choques externos y las políticas macroeconómicas sobre la actividad económica, la inflación, las tasas de interés y el tipo de cambio real. Se realizan cuatro simulaciones básicas: cambios en los precios de las materias primas de exportación, cambios en el gasto público fijado por el ministerio de economía, cambios en la tasa de interés fijada por el banco central y cambios en la intervención esterilizada del banco central en el mercado cambiario. Los ejercicios de simulación sugieren que para enfrentar un choque externo adverso se requiere de una respuesta de política monetaria y fiscal bastante agresiva. Por ejemplo, para mantener constante la brecha del producto registrada durante el periodo 2014-2016 ante una caída extra de 10 % en el precio de las materias primas de exportación, se hubiese requerido un incremento del gasto público de 3.3 % del PBI no primario potencial o una reducción impracticable (más de 1500 puntos básicos) de la tasa de interés de referencia. Igualmente, para mantener constante la tasa de inflación durante 2014-16 ante una caída extra de 10% de los precios de las materias primas de exportación, se hubiese requerido un incremento de las ventas netas de dólares de 60% en promedio. This paper presents a small-scale macro-econometric model for the Peruvian economy, estimated with quarterly data for 2003-16, which allows simulating the impact of external shocks and macroeconomic policies on economic activity, inflation, interest rates and the real exchange rate. Four basic simulations are carried out: changes in the commodity prices, changes in public expenditure set by the government, changes in the interest rate fixed by the central bank and changes in the sterilized intervention of the central bank in the foreign exchange market. The simulation exercises suggest that in order to face an adverse external shock, a very aggressive monetary and fiscal policy response is required. For example, to keep constant the output gap recorded during the 2014-2016 period, in the face of an extra 10% drop in the commodity prices, an increase in public spending of 3.3% of potential non-primary GDP would have been required, or an impracticable reduction (more than 1,500 basis points) of the reference interest rate. Likewise, to keep the inflation rate constant during 2014-16 in the face of an extra 10% drop in the commodity prices, an increase in sterilized dollars sales of 60% on average would have been required.