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Author: search.filters.author.Jorge Molina‐CarpioSubject: search.filters.subject.South America

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    The role of global warming trend and tropical interannual variability as drivers of South America’s 2022–2024 climate extremes
    (Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2026-09-01)
    From 2022 to 2024, South America experienced unprecedented regional climate extremes with severe socioeconomic impacts. These included extreme anomalies in temperature and precipitation, causing extreme drought conditions in southeastern South America and the Altiplano during spring 2022; extreme fire weather in central Chile in summer 2023; flooding in Rio Grande do Sul during autumn 2024; and the multiyear Amazon drought persisting throughout the springs 2022–2024. While these events were linked to the Global warming trend (GWT), Tropical interannual variability (TIV), and synoptic-scale processes, their contributions need to be clarified. Using linear regression, we decomposed the observed climate anomalies during 1998–2024 into GWT and TIV components and derived a Residual component representing anomalies not explained by either. This approach clarifies, through seasonal spatial patterns and contributions from regional variance, the roles of GWT and TIV in observed climate extremes across South America. From spring 2022 to spring 2024, GWT exhibited a strong background warming anomaly, while TIV displayed unusually robust teleconnections, particularly during its positive phases. As a result, a significant part of precipitation variability associated with climate extremes across the continent was driven by TIV, whereas GWT dominated in central-southern Chile. Both TIV and GWT contributed substantially to widespread South American warming, with GWT becoming the dominant influence as TIV weakened, except in central-southern Chile, where other factors prevailed. The unprecedented concurrence of strong GWT and combined TIV forcing amplified and prolonged climate extremes across the continent. The framework presented here can support climate extremes attribution worldwide.
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    Recent changes in the dry-to-wet transition season in the Andean Altiplano and related atmospheric circulation patterns (1981–2022)
    (Springer Science+Business Media, 2025-01-01)
    Drought-related impacts in the southern Tropical Andes are crucial for economic activities. Here, precipitation decreases (p < 0.1) during the dry-to-wet transition season (SON) based on CHIRPS (1981–2023) and meteorological stations (1973–2016). In addition, a decline in specific humidity and moisture flux is detected (1979–2022). The precipitation trend is stronger (p < 0.05) in the southern Titicaca, Desaguadero, Poopó and Coipasa Salt Pan hydrological system (TDPS) and extends southwards (20°S-30°S). A delayed onset and a reduced duration of the wet season are observed in the TDPS (p < 0.05), although precipitation intensifies during DJF in the southwestern TDPS (p < 0.05).To analyze the atmospheric features related to these changes, we derive atmospherics circulation patterns (CPs) from standardized anomalies of daily 200-hPa winds (1979–2022) using a weather classification technique. We identify 9 CPs, characterized by four ‘‘dry’’ (D1, D2, D3, and D4), three ‘‘wet’’ (W1, W2 and W3), and two ‘‘transitional’’ patterns (T1 and T2). During SON, the frequency of the W1 (D3) is negatively (positively) correlated with the onset date of the wet season (p < 0.05). Through the period 1979–2022, the frequencies of the D3 and the predominantly dry T1 increase (p < 0.1 and p < 0.05, respectively). Conversely, W1 frequency diminishes substantially since 2010. The physical mechanisms associated are discussed. In conclusion, increased D3 and T1 frequencies, and decreased W1 are related to the diminution of precipitation during SON and to the shortening of the wet season length. We also show that the extreme drought of 2022 was characterized by an unprecedented frequency of dry CPs, particularly during November.
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