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    Vegetation warming and greenness decline across Amazonia during the extreme drought of 2023
    (Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), 2024-07-01)
    In 2023, most parts of the world experienced exceptional heat. In particular, anomalous warm temperatures and heatwave events were evidenced across South America during the second half of the year. The situation was particularly critical in the Amazon region in terms of not only hydrometeorological drought but also ecological and socioeconomic impacts. In this study, remote-sensing data collected from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used to observe the changes in temperature and vegetation across Amazonia during the exceptional drought of 2023. This analysis was based on anomalies in the land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation indices: the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The amplitude of the LST (AMP-LST), an indicator of the energy partitioning between the latent and sensible heat flux, and fire counts were also considered. The results show widespread and extreme warming across Amazonia during the austral spring in 2023, accompanied by a decline in vegetation greenness, water stress conditions across northern Amazonia, and an enhanced fire occurrence across central and northern Amazonia.
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    Long-term variability, extremes and changes in temperature and hydrometeorology in the Amazon region: A review
    (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia, 2024-01-01)
    This review discusses observed hydroclimatic trends and future climate projections for the Amazon. Warming over this region is a fact, but the magnitude of the warming trend varies depending on the datasets and length of the analyzed period. The warming trend has been more evident since 1980 and has further enhanced since 2000. Long-term trends in climate and hydrology are assessed. Various studies have reported an intensification of the hydrological cycle and a lengthening of the dry season in the southern Amazon. Changes in floods and droughts, mainly due to natural climate variability and land use change, are also assessed. For instance, in the first half of the 20th century, extreme flood events occurred every 20 years. Since 2000, there has been one severe flood every four years. During the last four decades, the northern Amazon has experienced enhanced convective activity and rainfall, in contrast to decreases in convection and rainfall in the southern Amazon. Climate change in the Amazon will have impacts at regional and global scales. Significant reductions in rainfall are projected for the eastern Amazon.
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    Impact of Extreme Droughts on the Water Balance in the Peruvian–Ecuadorian Amazon Basin (2003–2024)
    (Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), 2025-11-01)
    This study assesses the impact of extreme droughts on the surface and atmospheric water balance of the Peruvian Amazon basin during 2003–2024. It extends previous work by incorporating multiple datasets for precipitation (CHIRPS, MSWEP, and ERA5) and evapotranspiration (ERA5, GLDAS, Amazon-Paca, and observations from the Quistococha flux tower) and comparing three drought indices: Maximum Cumulative Water Deficit (MCWD), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI). The study focuses on the Peruvian–Ecuadorian Amazon basin, particularly on the Amazon and Madre de Dios river basins, closing at Tamshiyacu and Amaru Mayu stations, respectively. The results confirm four extreme drought years (2004–2005, 2009–2010, 2022–2023, and 2023–2024) with major precipitation deficits in dry seasons and significant reductions in runoff and total water storage anomalies (TWSAs), physically manifesting as negative surface balances indicating net terrestrial water depletion and negative atmospheric balances reflecting reduced moisture convergence, with residuals signaling hydrological uncertainties. The study highlights significant imbalances in the water cycle during droughts and underscores the need to use multiple indicators and datasets to accurately assess hydrological responses under extreme climatic conditions in the Amazon basin.
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    Extreme Droughts in the Peruvian Amazon Region (2000–2024)
    (Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), 2025-06-01)
    Droughts in the Amazon region are expected to increase in frequency and intensity, which would negatively affect the tropical forest, leading to a positive climate–forest feedback loop that could potentially result in the collapse of this ecosystem. In this study, extreme drought conditions were identified in the Peruvian Amazon region for the period 2000–2024 using the maximum cumulative water deficit (MCWD) index, which is related to the tropical forest water stress. The ERA5, CHIRPS, and MSWEP datasets were used to estimate precipitation, while ERA5 data were used for evapotranspiration. This study focuses on the specificities of droughts and the differences across study areas. Six study areas were specified, three of them located in the Loreto department (northern Peruvian Amazon), another centered in Moyobamba city (western Peruvian Amazon), another in Ucayali, in the central Peruvian Amazon, and the other in Madre de Dios (southern Peruvian Amazon). It was found that the drought events are more frequent and intense in the central and southern regions of the basin. Based on the combined effect of the regional severity of the drought and its spatial extent, estimated from averaging across study areas and precipitation datasets, we identified the hydrological years of 2023-24, 2022-23, 2009-10, and 2004-05 as extreme droughts and 2015-16 and 2006-07 as moderate droughts.
      2
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    Drivers of drought and its propagation in the Southern Peruvian Andes
    (2026-02-01)
    The southern Peruvian Andes is vulnerable to droughts, with impacts on agriculture and hydropower production, and wildfire frequency. Previous research has focussed on the processes controlling precipitation variability in the region, while the drivers of drought propagation, from meteorological drought to soil moisture, vegetation and hydrological drought, remain unconstrained. We analyse large-scale climate variability and daily atmospheric circulation patterns to gain new insights into the spatial-temporal variation of the processes that enhance or inhibit the development of drought and its propagation during the period 1985-2020. Across all seasons, meteorological drought is broadly driven by an upper tropospheric westerly wind anomaly and weaker convection in the western Amazon. However, the climatic processes that cause these anomalies vary in time and space. During the onset of the wet season drought is driven by La Niña, while during the termination of the wet season drought typically occurs under El Niño. Droughts are more likely when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in phase with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, while the influence of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature is variable and often weak. The propagation to soil moisture drought occurs on short timescales, typically less than a month, and is enhanced by favourable climatic conditions, while hydrological drought is buffered by catchment-scale processes. The modulation of drought propagation by vegetation cover and local hydrological processes in the southern Peruvian Andes suggests that the region may see notable benefits from a localised impact-focussed drought forecasting system.
      1
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    Climatological patterns of heatwaves during winter and spring 2023 and trends for the period 1979–2023 in central South America
    (Frontiers Media, 2025-01-01)
    In the last 40 years, trends in heat wave frequency, intensity, and duration have increased steadily around the world. These intense heat waves were characterized persistent atmospheric blocking episode, with a continuous presence of a warm air mass and lack of rain for several consecutive days, that contributed to pronounced positive temperature anomalies, reinforced by extremely low soil moisture, and warm and drought conditions. The year 2023 was the warmest year on record, and the global average temperature was +1.45°C above pre-industrial (1850–1900) values worldwide. In South America 2023 was the warmest since 1900, with 0.81°C above the 1991–2020 reference period. Central South America experienced a sequence of heatwaves series being the most intense during the autumn and spring of 2023. From August to December 2023, the meteorological services of Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Bolivia reported record-high maximum temperatures in this period in several stations east of the Andes and identified 7 heat waves episodes that affected all these countries. The large-scale circulation patterns show that heatwaves were characterized by an anomalously high-pressure system that facilitated the formation of a heat dome through dry, hot air columns over a warm and dry soil. Several locations experienced temperature of about 10°C above normal, and some locations reported maximum temperatures above 40°C for several days in a row. These heat waves aggravated the drought over Amazonia during the second half of 2023, during an El Niño year. Compound drought-heat favored hydrological drought, while the increased dryness amplified the risk of fires.
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