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Item type:Publication, La macroeconomía de una economía abierta en el corto plazo : el modelo Mundell-Fleming(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2003)In this paper we present the Mundell – Fleming model for a regime of fixed and flexible exchange rate, in a context of perfect capital mobility. In the first part we present the model for the case of a fixed exchange – regime, in which the basic equations will be introduced describing the market for goods, the monetary market, the domestic market of bonds and the external bond market; as well as the interaction mechanisms between this markets. There will be carried out three simulation exercises, in which the effects will be seen on the production, the international reserves and the domestic interest rate of an expanding fiscal police, a devaluation and an increment of the external interest rate. In the second part we will develop the model for the case of a flexible exchange – regime, and the effects of fiscal and monetary policy, and of an increment of the external interest rate on production, domestic interest rates and the exchange rate will be examined. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, La sostenibilidad de la deuda pública en una economía abierta(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2004)The sustainability of the public finances is indispensable to get the macroeconomic stability. The fiscal sustainability is reached when the public debt as percentage of the PBI stays constant in a level considered appropriate, or it decreases gradually of a level considered inadequate. In this paper establish a theoretical model about on the sustainability of the public debt in a small and open economy, in a context of free mobility of capitals. To the basic framework theoretical, was incorporated, two interest rates, one for the internal public debt and another for the external public debt and, it supposed, also, the compliance of the parity not covered of interest rates. This way, the model captures two market risks, the associated to the variations of the international rates interest, of the exchange rate or of the expectations of devaluation. The model shows that, in an institutional mark where the authorities have difficulties to reduce the expenses or to elevate the taxes, that is to say, for a given level of primary balance, a reduction of the rate of growth of the product and an increment of the rate of devaluation of the exchange rate or of the external interest rate, increase the coefficient of public indebtedness. On the other hand, in a scenario where is possible to reduce the expenses or to elevate the tributes, before the presence of these events, when the authorities decide to maintain constant the coefficient of public indebtedness, the necessary primary balance for this objective has to rise. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, El mercado de bienes y los mercados financieros en economías con sistema bancario dolarizado(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2004)The private commercial banking and a widespread foreign currency market are the central institutions that characterize the financial system of many Latin American countries. In these economies, the stock markets still don’t have a great macroeconomic importance and the markets for government issued bonds are is in the middle of their development. In this paper a macroeconomic model is presented where the core of the financial system is constituted by banks. Banks accept deposits and grant credits as much in domestic currency as in foreign currency, and the flows of short term capitals have their origin in the external indebtedness of the local banks. The starting point of this type of models is the old Mundell-Fleming, which allows us to link the real sector with the financial system, in a world opened to the international trade of goods and financial capitals. In an economy where the firms and the families have their debt in foreign currency, if we consider that the real load of the debt influences private expenditure, a devaluation, under a fixed exchange rate regime, or under an expanding monetary policy in a regimen of flexible exchange rate, can increase the real exchange rate, elevate the real load of the debt and, if this effect is more important than the Marshall-Lerner effect, the devaluation or the expansive monetary policy can have a recessive effect on the level of economic activity. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Precios y nivel de actividad económica en una economía abierta: la oferta y la demanda agregada con tipo de cambio flexible(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2004)In this paper we present the combined analysis of the offer and the demand added under a regime of flexible exchange rate, for the short, the medium and the long term, in a context of perfect mobility of capitals. This model of supply and demand aggregate, determined the level of prices and the production, given a set of exogenous variables. In the short term, the aggregate supply is perfectly elastic, the demand determines the production level and the level of prices is exogenous. In the medium term, the level of economic activity and the exchange rate exercise an influence on the level of prices, therefore the aggregate supply is of positive slope and it has as parameter the exchange rate; and the variations in the aggregate demand affect to prices and quantities. In the long term, the aggregate supply is perfectly inelastic and the changes in the aggregate demand only affect at the level of prices, not at the level of economic activity; this it depends exclusively on supply factors. Finally, the expected prices will be endogenization, to study the adjustment dynamics toward the balance of the stationary state, before the different shocks of supply and demand. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, La macroeconomía de una economía abierta: el mercado de trabajo y la oferta agregada(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2003)In this paper we study the operation of the labor market, of which is derived the curve of aggregate supply, for the case of a closed and open economy, in the short, medium and Iong term. In an open economy, an important part of the production costs is derived of the use of imported inputs in the fabrication of the products. Therefore, the domestic level of prices, besides depending on the level of the nominal wage, is also associated to factors like the exchange rate or to the international price of the imported inputs. In the short term, since the nominal wage and the exchange rate are independent of the activity level, the level of prices is constant and therefore the aggregate supply is perfectly elastic. In the medium term, an increment of the level of economic activity, when reducing the unemployment rate, produces an increment of the wages, that which elevates the costs of production of the companies and the level of prices of the economy. Therefore, the companies are willing to offer a bigger production but at a higher level of prices. In the long term, the prices don’t influence in the level of economic activity, this implies that the aggregate supply is perfectly inelastic. After presenting the different versions of the aggregate supply, in the final part of the paper we carried out exercises of comparative static to show the effects in the aggregate supply of the technological change and the increment of the international price of the petroleum. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, La dinámica de la inflación y el nivel de actividad económica en una economía abierta(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2003)In this paper we present a model similar to that of Aggregate Supply and Demand, for the study of the fluctuations of the two most important macroeconomic variables: inflation and the level of activity. In the first part we present the case of a closed economy, in which the basic equations will be introduced describing the market of goods, the monetary market, the curve of Phillips and the interaction mechanisms among them. The model will be presented under the assumption of adaptive expectations and rational expectations, and we will see the different trajectories in the dynamics toward the steady state when the monetary authority acts under the Rule of Taylor. In the second part we will develop the model for an open economy. The equation of parity of interest rates will be introduced, incorporating the real exchange rate as a determinant of the level of economic activity. The objective of this second part will be to show that the Rule of Taylor is an important monetary policy tool to stabilize the fluctuations of the level of economic activity in an open economy. We will carry out the analysis with adaptive expectations and under two scenarios: expansive devaluation and recessive devaluation. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, La macroeconomía de una economía abierta en el corto plazo: del modelo Mundell – Fleming a la demanda agregada(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2003)In this paper the Mundell – Fleming model is used to derive the curve of the aggregate demand for regimens of fixed and flexible exchange rates, in a context of perfect capital mobility. A curve of perfectly elastic aggregate supply will be supposed. Though, all increment of the aggregate demand will be translated in a variation of the production of the same magnitude to return to the equilibrium, while the price level stays constant. The price level will be introduced in an explicit way, since the analysis requires that one works in the plane of the demanded production and the price level. The form of incorporating it will be through the real exchange rate, in the market for goods; and through the nominal demand of money, in the monetary market. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Precios y nivel de actividad económica en una economía abierta: la oferta y la demanda agregada con tipo de cambio fijo(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2003)In this paper we present the combined analysis of the supply and the aggregate demand under a régime of fixed exchange rate, for the short, medium and long term, in a context of perfect mobility of capitals. The model determines the level of prices and the production, given a group of exogenous variables. In the short term, the aggregate supply is perfectly elastic, the demand determines the production, while the level of prices is exogenous. In the medium term, the level of economic activity exercises an influence on the level of prices, what implies an aggregate supply of positive slope and the changes in the demand affects to prices and quantities. Finally, in the long term, the aggregate supply is perfectly inelastic and the changes in the demand only affect at the level of prices; not to the production. In the final part of the paper, through the endogenization of the prospective prices, will be studied the adjustment dynamics toward the stady state, before the different shocks of supply and demand. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Aproximando el clima de negocios a nivel municipal(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2009)This study analyses the more appropriate environment for the business location at the Peruvian municipal level. The first part of this study analyses the conditions to determine the good locations for investing in business, within the framework of the Economic Geography (Venables, 2003; and Burgess and Venables, 2004). The Municipal National Register 2004 and the Population and Household Census 2005 were used to create a Business Climate Indicator with the objective of identifying the municipalities that promote the right environment for business. The results show that, only 27.5% of the municipalities that were studied (464 out of 1686), encourage an adequate business climate in Peru. Said municipalities are located mostly in the coastal 3 regions, standing out the municipalities of Lima and Callao, which have the highest Business Climate Indicators at the national level. The study concludes with some reflections on the need to make more efforts for improving the business climate in Peru. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Quitarle a los ricos para darle a los pobres?: Una propuesta de redistribución de los recursos del canon y regalías mineras a nivel municipal(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2008)In this study the Peruvian intergovernmental transfer system was re-designed taking into consideration both horizontal equity and transverse compensation in the distribution of resources. In doing so, the Admad, Singh and Fortuna (2004)’s methodology was used, the same which proposes a formula to equalize intergovernmental transfers by calculating fiscal capacities and spending requirements at the municipal level. The results of the study are 5: (i) the municipalities located at mining regions receive more resources than they should receive according to their fiscal capacities and spending needs; (ii) the municipalities located at mining regions received S/. 1364.3 millions (US$ 455 millions) in excess, which represents a surplus of 67.5%; (iii) when a entire reform of the transfer system is implemented, the whole of the resources that municipalities placed at mining regions receive in excess are redistributed between non-mining municipalities; (iv) the variance of the resources inter-regional distribution declines gradually in each of the 3 stages of the proposed reform; (v) additional resources are not necessary to equalize the intergovernmental transfer system, only political will is needed. At the end, the study establishes 4 guidelines to implement a reform of the Peruvian intergovernmental transfer system.