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Author: search.filters.author.Delgado, Augusto

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    Convergencia en las Regiones del Perú: ¿Inclusión o Exclusión en el Crecimiento de la Economía Peruana (1970-2010)?
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2014)
    The Peruvian economy has been growing steadily over the past 15 years. Check if the departments have achieved a convergence process either to a single steady state or its own steady state would be an indicator to verify a process of inclusion in the growth process. Basic features of the national census are such that there are a number of departments not reach certain minimum criteria for subsistence and therefore are in a clear process of exclusion. From this perspective, the concept of convergence may provide some light on this situation. If convergence exists, it is likely that this convergence is carried into poverty or exclusion or to the opposite side. In this paper, per capita GDP of each department relative to the national average is used to apply various statistical tests in order to verify the existence of stochastic convergence and β-convergence as well. Further, the application of a new methodology for identifying clubs convergence is used. The results of the application of unit root tests without structural change indicate the absence of stochastic convergence. However, incorporating the presence of endogenous breaks, the result is reversed for all departments. The implementation of a statistical test robust to the presence of I (0) or I (1) errors allows inference from estimates of the intercepts and growth rates before and after a structural break. The results indicate that all departments have experienced a structural break in the period 1970-2010. The analysis of the intercepts and growth rates before and after the breakpoint suggests that the departments that have undergone a process of catching-up and those who have undergone a process of lagging-behind. In some cases this process of lagging-behind has been given to levels below the national average while other departments have remained above the national average. On the other hand, besides rejecting absolute convergence hypothesis, we found three clubs of convergence. There are also two departments (Apurimac and Huancavelica) that are not part of any club convergence and appear disconnected from the rest of the country and stuck to GDP per capita average.
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    Growth of the peruvian economy and convergence in the regions of Perú: 1970-2010
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2013)
    The Peruvian economy has been growing sustainably during the last 15 years. Verifying whether the Departments (or Regions) have achieved a process of convergence, be it towards a single stationary state or its own stationary state, would be equivalent to verifying a process of inclusion in the said process of growth. Basic characteristics of the national Census allow us to state that a great number of the Departments that still do not reach certain minimum criteria of subsistence are therefore in a clear process of exclusion. From this perspective, we think that the concept of convergence can give us some light over the situation. If convergence exists, it is probable that the said convergence is realized towards poverty or exclusion. In this document, different statistical tests are applied to verify the existence of stochastic and deterministic convergence, as well as a recent methodology for identifying the so-called clubs of convergence. The results of the application of the tests of unit root without structural break indicate the inexistence of stochastic convergence. However, when incorporating the presence of endogenous break the results get reversed for all the Departments with the exception of Huancavelica. The application of a statistic for structural break robust to the presence of errors of type I(0) and I(1) allow us to estimate the departamental rates of growth before and after the break. The results suggest that the majority of the Departments have accelerated their rates of growth after the breaking point. Some Departments show the inexistence of structural change and even a few cases show a deceleration of their rates of growth. On the other hand, evidence has been found about the formation of clubs of convergence that are robust to different order settings proposed by the methodology that was utilized. According to that methodology, the Departments of Apurimac and Huancavelica are not part of any club of convergence, which means that they are disconnected to the rest of the country.