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Item type:Publication, Comparing model complexity for glacio-hydrological simulation in the data-scarce Peruvian Andes(Elsevier, 2021-10-01)Study region: Glaciated headwaters of the Vilcanota-Urubamba river basin, Southern Peru Study focus: A pivotal question is if robust hydrological simulation of streamflow in data-scarce and glaciated catchments can be achieved using parsimonious or more complex models. Therefore, a multi-model assessment of three glacio-hydrological models of different complexity was conducted thoroughly analyzing model performance, flow signatures and runoff components. New hydrological insights for the region: In data-scarce catchments, such as in the tropical Andes, parsimonious glacio-hydrological models can provide more robust results than complex models. While the overall performance of all models was reasonably good (R2: 0.65–0.70, Nash-Sutcliffe: 0.65–0.73, Nash-Sutcliffe-ln: 0.73–0.78), with increasing data scarcity more complex models involve higher uncertainties. Furthermore, complex models require substantial understanding of the underpinning hydrological processes and a comprehensive calibration strategy to avoid apparently high model performance driven by inadequate assumptions. Based on these insights we present a framework for robust glacio-hydrological simulation under data scarcity. This stepwise approach includes, among others, a multi-model focus with a comprehensive assessment of flow signatures and runoff components. Future modeling needs to be further supported by alternative data collection strategies to substantially improve knowledge and process understanding. Therefore, the extension of sensor and station networks combined with the integration of co-produced knowledge represents a meaningful measure to robust decision-making for climate change adaptation and water management under high uncertainty. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Assessing water management strategies in data-scarce mountain regions under uncertain climate and socio-economic changes(Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2024-09-01)Water management in mountainous regions faces significant challenges due to deep uncertainties arising from data scarcity, knowledge gaps, and the complex interplay of climate and socio-economic changes. While existing approaches focused on uncertainty reduction and water system optimization contribute to managing uncertainties, they often require probability distributions that can be difficult to obtain in data-scarce mountain regions. To address these challenges, we demonstrate the effectiveness of Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) in assessing water management strategies and identifying operational ranges that avoid future water scarcity. Through a case study in the complex and data-scarce Peruvian Andes, we employed EMA to run 12,000 simulations by 2050, incorporating deep uncertainties from climate and socio-economic scenarios, and hydrological modeling parameters. This analysis identified specific policy combinations demonstrating greater robustness across diverse scenarios and uncertainties. EMA explicitly identifies operational ranges of policies to avoid water scarcity but also highlights the conditions that might trigger policy failure. We also delve into the roles of the different factors used in EMA and their significance in water management applications. Our research illustrates that an exploratory hydrological modeling approach based on robust decision-making can foster a more informed decision-making process for long-term water adaptation in rapidly changing mountain regions under data scarcity and deep uncertainties. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Cascading downstream impacts of water cycle changes in mountain regions(Nature Portfolio, 2026-02-01)Mountains, often called the world’s ‘water towers’, are vital sources of freshwater that sustain ecosystems and societies far downstream. Climate change is altering their role, impacting the quantity, timing and quality of mountain water supply. While substantial research focuses on snow and glacier changes within mountains, a holistic understanding of how water cycle changes in mountains impact human water use and ecosystems downstream is still needed. Here we address how these changes cascade downstream, affect diverse social–ecological systems and pose challenges for adaptation. We also highlight major research gaps and outline research priorities for improving understanding of these coupled systems under a changing climate.1