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Author: search.filters.author.Cristian L. BayesSubject: search.filters.subject.Bayesian probability

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    Modelling death rates due to COVID-19: A Bayesian approach
    (Cornell University, 2020-04-06)
    Objective: To estimate the number of deaths in Peru due to COVID-19. Design: With a priori information obtained from the daily number of deaths due to CODIV-19 in China and data from the Peruvian authorities, we constructed a predictive Bayesian non-linear model for the number of deaths in Peru. Exposure: COVID-19. Outcome: Number of deaths. Results: Assuming an intervention level similar to the one implemented in China, the total number of deaths in Peru is expected to be 612 (95%CI: 604.3 - 833.7) persons. Sixty four days after the first reported death, the 99% of expected deaths will be observed. The inflexion point in the number of deaths is estimated to be around day 26 (95%CI: 25.1 - 26.8) after the first reported death. Conclusion: These estimates can help authorities to monitor the epidemic and implement strategies in order to manage the COVID-19 pandemic.
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    Screening for aberrant school performances in high-stakes assessments using in influential analysis
    (Inderscience Publishers, 2020-01-01)
    A method is proposed to screen for aberrant school performances in large-scale, high-stakes assessments using influential analysis under a Bayesian approach. Proportions of low and high achievers within a school were modelled via the beta inflated mean regression model (Bayes and Valdivieso, 2016) using school performances in previous years as predictors. The general measure of ϕ-divergence proposed by Peng and Dey (1995) was used to determine aberrancy. A simulation study revealed that the method could recover previously distorted school performances as aberrant. The proposed technique was applied to a Peruvian national reading assessment in grade 4th of primary education for which the government provided a school performance incentive bonus.