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Item type:Publication, Comparing model complexity for glacio-hydrological simulation in the data-scarce Peruvian Andes(Elsevier, 2021-10-01)Study region: Glaciated headwaters of the Vilcanota-Urubamba river basin, Southern Peru Study focus: A pivotal question is if robust hydrological simulation of streamflow in data-scarce and glaciated catchments can be achieved using parsimonious or more complex models. Therefore, a multi-model assessment of three glacio-hydrological models of different complexity was conducted thoroughly analyzing model performance, flow signatures and runoff components. New hydrological insights for the region: In data-scarce catchments, such as in the tropical Andes, parsimonious glacio-hydrological models can provide more robust results than complex models. While the overall performance of all models was reasonably good (R2: 0.65–0.70, Nash-Sutcliffe: 0.65–0.73, Nash-Sutcliffe-ln: 0.73–0.78), with increasing data scarcity more complex models involve higher uncertainties. Furthermore, complex models require substantial understanding of the underpinning hydrological processes and a comprehensive calibration strategy to avoid apparently high model performance driven by inadequate assumptions. Based on these insights we present a framework for robust glacio-hydrological simulation under data scarcity. This stepwise approach includes, among others, a multi-model focus with a comprehensive assessment of flow signatures and runoff components. Future modeling needs to be further supported by alternative data collection strategies to substantially improve knowledge and process understanding. Therefore, the extension of sensor and station networks combined with the integration of co-produced knowledge represents a meaningful measure to robust decision-making for climate change adaptation and water management under high uncertainty. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Looking beyond glaciers to understand mountain water security(Nature Portfolio, 2022-11-07)Changes in the mountain cryosphere impact the water security of downstream societies and the resilience of water-dependent ecosystems and their services. However, assessing mountain water security requires better understanding of the complex interaction between glacial meltwater and coupled human–natural systems. In this context, we call for a refocusing from glacio-hydrological monitoring and modelling to a more integrated social-ecological perspective of the wider catchment hydrology. This shift requires locally relevant knowledge-production strategies and the integration of such knowledge into a collaborative science–policy–community framework. This approach, combined with hydrological risk assessment, can support the development of robust, locally tailored and transformational adaptation strategies. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017-2021): a research community perspective(Copernicus Publications, 2022-09-19)Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most concerning consequences of retreating glaciers in mountain ranges worldwide. GLOFs have attracted significant attention amongst scientists and practitioners in the past 2 decades, with particular interest in the physical drivers and mechanisms of GLOF hazard and in socioeconomic and other human-related developments that affect vulnerabilities to GLOF events. This increased research focus on GLOFs is reflected in the gradually increasing number of papers published annually. This study offers an overview of recent GLOF research by analysing 594 peer-reviewed GLOF studies published between 2017 and 2021 (Web of Science and Scopus databases), reviewing the content and geographical focus as well as other characteristics of GLOF studies. This review is complemented with perspectives from the first GLOF conference (7-9 July 2021, online) where a global GLOF research community of major mountain regions gathered to discuss the current state of the art of integrated GLOF research. Therefore, representatives from 17 countries identified and elaborated trends and challenges and proposed possible ways forward to navigate future GLOF research, in four thematic areas: (i) understanding GLOFs - timing and processes; (ii) modelling GLOFs and GLOF process chains; (iii) GLOF risk management, prevention and warning; and (iv) human dimensions of GLOFs and GLOF attribution to climate change. Copyright: - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Assessing water management strategies in data-scarce mountain regions under uncertain climate and socio-economic changes(Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2024-09-01)Water management in mountainous regions faces significant challenges due to deep uncertainties arising from data scarcity, knowledge gaps, and the complex interplay of climate and socio-economic changes. While existing approaches focused on uncertainty reduction and water system optimization contribute to managing uncertainties, they often require probability distributions that can be difficult to obtain in data-scarce mountain regions. To address these challenges, we demonstrate the effectiveness of Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) in assessing water management strategies and identifying operational ranges that avoid future water scarcity. Through a case study in the complex and data-scarce Peruvian Andes, we employed EMA to run 12,000 simulations by 2050, incorporating deep uncertainties from climate and socio-economic scenarios, and hydrological modeling parameters. This analysis identified specific policy combinations demonstrating greater robustness across diverse scenarios and uncertainties. EMA explicitly identifies operational ranges of policies to avoid water scarcity but also highlights the conditions that might trigger policy failure. We also delve into the roles of the different factors used in EMA and their significance in water management applications. Our research illustrates that an exploratory hydrological modeling approach based on robust decision-making can foster a more informed decision-making process for long-term water adaptation in rapidly changing mountain regions under data scarcity and deep uncertainties. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Hydrology, Water Resources Availability and Management in the Andes Under Climate Change and Human Impacts(Elsevier B.V., 2023-10-01)• This Special Issue investigates water availability and management across the Andes. • It includes novel approaches to couple climate and hydrology with human water needs. • The collection enables an integrated analysis to reduce future risk of water scarcity. • Andean water research requires improved data collection and plausible future scenarios. • Adaptive water management needs to foster science-policy dialogue processes. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Detection and attribution of climate change impacts in coupled natural-human systems in the Andes(Nature Portfolio, 2025-12-01)Mountain regions are among the most sensitive and vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change. In this study, we systematically assess the observed impacts of climate change in the Andes and use expert review and model-based methods to identify the role of anthropogenic climate change. Impact detection and attribution assessments showed that anthropogenic climate change has had at least a minor role in the observed changes while non-climate factors also interfere. Our results confirm that the observed rapid melting of glaciers, increasing number of droughts and floods and reduced water availability in all Andean regions have led to a widespread cascading of impacts through natural and human systems and that these detected impacts can be attributed to human interference in the climate. These findings highlight the need to understand the complex interactions of natural and human systems, support policy-making and implement locally relevant adaptation responses to climate change. Impacts of anthropogenic climate change in the Andes, such as glacier melt and an increasing frequency of floods and droughts, have cascaded through natural and human systems, according to a systematic assessment involving observations, expert review and model-based methods.2