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Item type:Publication, Hiperinflación y cambio de régimen en el Perú : un análisis comparativo(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1991)A new approach to inflation in Peru from a different viewpoint than the typical monetary-fiscal analysis, this paper does not examine several typical indicators and does not delve into the issue of dollarized (or not) prices, nor the transmission factors or mechanisms that would account for inflation’s inertial component. It rather focuses on the institutional framework leading to changes in the economic agents’ behavior, given steep inflation in Peru toward the end of the 1980s. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Dolarización y fragilidad financiera en el Perú(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1993)Price dollarization is understood as the overarching indexation of economic prices by pegging them to a free dollar market. This paper provides an empirical analysis of price dollarization in Peru from 1980 to now, preceded by a review of the main published papers on dollarization in Peru. It addresses next financial dollarization and concludes by pointing to a monetary and price histeresis. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Apertura, cuenta corriente y transferencia externa en el Perú(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1996)This paper analyze the peruvian economy evolution since 1970 to 1993, testing the mainly growth constraint, using different alternatives of estimation with a “three gap” model. The results show that they have not been, the fiscal gap neither the saving gap, that have limitated the growth. The external constraint is the most important one that has not been eliminated because the capital flows in the nineties. But if the actual desequilibrium in the current account are not corrected, it would reappear (makin worse) like a balance of payment crisis, and this is one of the structural problems in Peru. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Los factores estructurales y la dinámica macroeconómica : un enfoque de brechas(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1996)This paper identify the external constraint like a structural problem, and in the first part we make a book review about some authors who had fundamental this posture. We analyze the principal macroeconomic indicators in the last 23 years and we apply a three gap-model that, because its structure, do not give an adequate valuation to the external gap, in preference to fiscal and internal gap. Instead of, the empirical evidence shows the importance of the external limit in this period. That has consistency whit the conceptual interpretation we have at the beginning. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Dinámica de precios relativos y régimen liberal(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1997)This paper shows that there is an important dispersion in relative prices in the Peruvian economy instead of deflation, and we present an explanatory model about that dynamics.One of the most important implications is that the exchange rate has a crucial importance in the explanation of inflation. This is a consequence of the liberalization process of the nineties. So, the exchange rate appreciation would be a fundamental element to explain the deflation.Other central implication is that the exchange rate appreciation affects the exporters’ revenues, increase his wage costs in dollars and his “public” and financial costs. The competitiveness of our exports is seriously damaged, especially industrial exports and, this process limit both the possible boom in exports in the future and a solution to the external restriction.The liberal regime, would be a transition regime. If the results of our estimations are correct, the consequence of an overshooting policy in a context of economic dollarization, could trigger the most important crisis of the last fifteen years (financial, inflationary and balance of payments). - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Tasa de cambio real efectiva y exportaciones de manufacturados : el caso del Brasil(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1992)Given the importance for economic policy of determining how the real exchange rates impact foreign trade, and since apparently at present Brasil is not using the best available effective exchange indicator, this paper discusses alternative effective exchange rates.