3. Producción
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Item type:Publication, Propuesta de un instrumento de política para reducir la inestabilidad cambiaria y financiera(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2009)El objetivo general de nuestro trabajo es estudiar la pertinencia y viabilidad de la introducción de un impuesto a los flujos de capital (Impuesto Tobin) como un instrumento market friendly que tenga el propósito de reducir la inestabilidad cambiaria y financiera causada por la globalización, es decir, la volatilidad de los flujos de capital, dada la importancia que estos han ido adquiriendo durante los últimos años en nuestra economía y, en general, en todos los países del mundo. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, La política monetaria en el Perú : metas versus discrecionalidad(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1993)The debate on the objectives of discretionary monetary policy in Peru. A short term microfinancial model including the structural characteristics of Peru’s financial system, the overpowering presence of the banking system on corporate financing and dollarized wealth in the private sector. The Central Bank-s conduct of business is also reviewed, given its role in fixing prices or quantities. Finally, the paper points to the implications of the banking system’s dollarization on monetary policy. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, About the role of monetary aggregates for monetary policy: the case of Peru(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, Económicas, Políticas y Antropológicas - CISEPA, 2005)The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relevance of monetary aggregates for monetary policy as indicators of real activity. The main hypothesis of this paper is that narrow monetary aggregates can help forecasting real output. The empirical analysis combines the time scale decomposition of time series using wavelets and the possible existence of cointegrating relationships between money, output and prices. Using recent Peruvian data, evidence is found to support the proposed hypothesis. In particular, the results suggest the existence of co-integration between non-stationary series built using wavelet filtering. In this context, exogeneity tests reveal that narrow monetary aggregates are weakly and strongly exogenous; i.e., they are helpful for forecasting real output. These results suggest that money has a role for monetary policy as an indicator of real activity. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Evaluation of wavelet - based core inflation measures : evidence form Peru(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2011)Under inflation targeting and other related monetary policy regimes, the identification of non-transitory inflation and forecasts about future inflation constitute key ingredients for monetary policy decisions. In practice, central banks perform these tasks using so-called core inflation measures”. In this paper we construct alternative core inflation measures using wavelet functions and multiresolution analysis (MRA), and then evaluate their relevance for monetary policy. The construction of wavelet-based core inflation measures (WIMs) is relatively new in the literature and their assessment has not been addressed formally, this paper being the first attempt to perform both tasks for the case of Peru. Another main contribution of this paper is that it proposes two alternative criteria for evaluating core inflation measures: (i) a VAR-based long-run criterion, and (ii) forecast-based criteria. Evidence from Peru shows that WIMs are superior in terms of long-run performance, and that they could improve short-term (up-to-6-months) inflation forecasts. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Flujos de capital, política monetaria y equilibrio externo(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1996)Unlike what happenned in most Latin American economies after the Mexican crisis,the Peruvian trade deficit kept on growing during 1995, in spite of the application ofrestrictive fiscal and monetary policies. In this paper, a model with free capital mobility, flexible exchange rates and a dollarized banking system is used to show a rather unusual result: that a restrictive monetary policy worsens the commercial deficit. In this institutional framework, capital controls are needed for the Central Bank to be able to regulate the total supply of domestic credit, which in time is a required condition for a restrictive monetary policy to improve the trade balance. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Modelos macroeconómicos para una economía dolarizada(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2002)Contiene una colección de modelos macroeconómicos que poseen la misma estructura de los modelos IS-LM que se encuentran en otros libros sobre macroeconomía; sin embargo presenta una adaptación de este modelo a una economía dolarizada como la peruana, sustituyendo el mercado de bonos por un mercado de dólares. Este modelo que permite determinar la producción, los precios y el tipo de cambio. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Las "vacas flacas" en la economía peruana(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2018)En la historia macroeconómica del Perú, las épocas de «vacas gordas», es decir, los auges más o menos prolongados donde crece la actividad económica, se expande el empleo y aumenta la inversión privada, son también épocas de precios altos de las materias primas que exportamos (metales, hoy día); y las épocas de «vacas flacas», es decir, las recesiones más o menos intensas donde decrece la actividad económica y se contraen el empleo y la inversión privada, son épocas de precios bajos de estas materias primas.
