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El modelo IS-LM : una versión para el Perú
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1992)
How can the IS-LM logical structure be used advantageously to build a macroeconomic model that addresses some present Peruvian economic issues? The institutional features of the Peruvian economy underpinning this evolution are a dollarized private sector, the free exchange rate and output and prices’s sensitivity to the floating exchange rate.
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La teoría de las uniones aduaneras: el enfoque tradicional
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1999)
The present paper has been prepared as teaching material. We believe it can fill a vacum since to our knowledge no such a topic has been covered in certain detail in our country. Some recent discussion about the economic merits of the Preferential Trade Areas adds relevance to this topic. The review we made is not thorough. We only covered what we think is the most important literature on custom unions within what we may call the traditional approach. This literature does not deal with the existence of increasing returns to scale. An important omission is the work of Jaroslav Vanek.
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Retornos crecientes a escala, comercio internacional y política comercial
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1999)
This paper presents in the first place, Kemps contribution to the understanding of the effects of the presence of IRS on the H-O theory of trade. Then, following W. Ethier we present a view about the development of trade theory incorporating IRS. Later on we present the “integrated economy” approach by P. Krugman. Finally, some models on commercial policy in the presence of IRS and imperfect competition are presented.
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Espacios económicos, jerarquía de lugares centrales y teoría de grafos : algunas reflexiones teóricas y una aplicación empírica
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1980)
Explora los diversos problemas generados en la teoría económica espacial provenientes del hecho de tomar como punto de partida para el análisis las hipótesis de homogeneidad y continuidad. Concluye que el recurso a las nociones de-homogeneidad y continuidad espaciales, tan socorrida por la mayoría de los especialistas regionales, limita, encasilla y restringe el análisis regional. Habiendo asumido que por definición, el espacio es heterogéneo y discontinuo, el empleo de la teoría de grafos facilita considerablemente la obtención de una jerarquía de Lugares Centrales.
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La macroeconomía de una economía abierta en el corto plazo : el modelo Mundell-Fleming
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2003)
In this paper we present the Mundell – Fleming model for a regime of fixed and flexible exchange rate, in a context of perfect capital mobility. In the first part we present the model for the case of a fixed exchange – regime, in which the basic equations will be introduced describing the market for goods, the monetary market, the domestic market of bonds and the external bond market; as well as the interaction mechanisms between this markets. There will be carried out three simulation exercises, in which the effects will be seen on the production, the international reserves and the domestic interest rate of an expanding fiscal police, a devaluation and an increment of the external interest rate. In the second part we will develop the model for the case of a flexible exchange – regime, and the effects of fiscal and monetary policy, and of an increment of the external interest rate on production, domestic interest rates and the exchange rate will be examined.
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Dinero e inflación: el overshooting y el canal del tipo de cambio
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2005)
In this paper we extend the Dornbusch’s model (1976), the overshooting of the exchange rate, in two directions. First, as it was modeled by Wilson (1979), we assume that agents have rational expectations, i.e. perfect foresight in a deterministic model. In this framework, we analyze the effects of unanticipated and anticipated economic policies. Second, this model tries to reproduce the stylized fact that, in an opened economy under a regime of flexible exchange rate, the impact of an expansionary monetary policy over prices can be immediate, through the effect in the exchange rate. With this goal, the Dornbusch’s original model has been extended to take into account the depreciation rate of the exchange rate, as an argument of the Phillip’s Curve. In this extension we assume, as in the basic model, that there is no adjustment in prices due to the excess of demand in the good market, in the short run; while the adjustment that is generated by the movement of the exchange rate is instantaneous.
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El modelo Mundel-Fleming: una versión intertemporal
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, Económicas, Políticas y Antropológicas - CISEPA, 2000)
This paper presents an intertemporal version of the Mundell-Fleming model, with free capital movements and floating exchange rate. The model includes two subsystems, one for each period, that allows exchange rate, production, and interest rate expectations to be determined, under perfect foresight, without losing the simplicity and transparency of the comparative static. The connection between the first period and the second period is given according to the expectation that the public makes in the first period about some variables of the second period. These ones, at the same time, are the variables that are determined on the second period. The model allows the identification of the effects of an expected monetary policy in the future (period 2) on the production, exchange rate, and the interest rate in the present (period 1). These results differ from Sargent and Wallace´s proposition (1975), where expected monetary policy has no effects on the economy activity; but these results are like Fischer´s model (1977), where monetary policy, even if it is expected, does have effects on the real variables such as production.
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Dinero, tipo de cambio y expectativas
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1995)
Two dynamic models are developed in this essay. In both models the rate of inflation, the exchange rate variations and the rate of output growth are determined. They are different only in the treatment of exchange rate expectations. The first one includes adaptive expectations and the second one works with rational expectations. In the new steady state equilibrium, after a decrease in the rate of growth of money, there is a proportionate decreasing in the rates of inflation and depreciation. However, the models work in different ways in the trajectory towards the equilibrium.
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La macroeconomía de una economía abierta en el corto plazo: del modelo Mundell – Fleming a la demanda agregada
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2003)
In this paper the Mundell – Fleming model is used to derive the curve of the aggregate demand for regimens of fixed and flexible exchange rates, in a context of perfect capital mobility. A curve of perfectly elastic aggregate supply will be supposed. Though, all increment of the aggregate demand will be translated in a variation of the production of the same magnitude to return to the equilibrium, while the price level stays constant. The price level will be introduced in an explicit way, since the analysis requires that one works in the plane of the demanded production and the price level. The form of incorporating it will be through the real exchange rate, in the market for goods; and through the nominal demand of money, in the monetary market.
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Perú : quinquenio 1985-1989 : modelo del Banco Mundial
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 1986)
El modelo en cuestión es el llamado modelo mínimo estándar revisado (MMSR), debiendo lo de mínimo estándar a que está basado en principios económicos básicos -identidades de cuentas nacionales, balanza de pagos y algunas ecuaciones de comportamiento- lo que permite realizar proyecciones genéricas sobre la evolución de economías que participan de características semejantes. El trabajo tiene 3 secciones: la primera de descripción básica de la estructura del modelo, la segunda de determinación de parámetros -tasas de crecimiento y elasticidades- y la tercera de evaluación de escenarios.
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