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Item type:Publication, Modelling death rates due to COVID-19: A Bayesian approach(Cornell University, 2020-04-06)Objective: To estimate the number of deaths in Peru due to COVID-19. Design: With a priori information obtained from the daily number of deaths due to CODIV-19 in China and data from the Peruvian authorities, we constructed a predictive Bayesian non-linear model for the number of deaths in Peru. Exposure: COVID-19. Outcome: Number of deaths. Results: Assuming an intervention level similar to the one implemented in China, the total number of deaths in Peru is expected to be 612 (95%CI: 604.3 - 833.7) persons. Sixty four days after the first reported death, the 99% of expected deaths will be observed. The inflexion point in the number of deaths is estimated to be around day 26 (95%CI: 25.1 - 26.8) after the first reported death. Conclusion: These estimates can help authorities to monitor the epidemic and implement strategies in order to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Early Evidence and Predictors of Mental Distress of Adults One Month in the COVID-19 Epidemic in Brazil(Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, 2020-04-23)ABSTRACT Objective We aim to provide early evidence of mental distress and its associated predictors among adults one month into the COVID-19 crisis in Brazil. Methods We conducted an online survey of 638 adults in Brazil on March 25–28, 2020, about one month (32 days) cross-sectionally after the first COVID-19 case in South America was confirmed in São Paulo. The 638 adults were in 25 states out of the 26 Brazilian states, with the only exception being Roraima, the least populated state in the Amazon. Of all the participating adults, 24%, 20%, and 18% of them were located in Rio de Janeiro state, Santa Catarina state, and São Paulo state respectively. Results In Brazil, 52% (332) of the sampled adults experienced mild or moderate distress, and 18.8% (120) suffered severe distress. Adults who were female, younger, more educated, and exercised less reported higher levels of distress. Each individual’s distance from the Brazilian epicenter of São Paulo interacted with age and workplace attendance to predict the level of distress. The “typhoon eye effect” was stronger for people who were older or attended their workplace less. The most vulnerable adults were those who were far from the epicenter and did not go to their workplace in the week before the survey. Conclusion Identifying the predictors of distress enables mental health services to better target finding and helping the more mentally vulnerable adults during the ongoing COVID-19 crisis. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and stunting in children under 5 years in Peru: a double-difference analysis(Elsevier, 2020-04-01)Background The 1997–98 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was one of the most important natural disasters in 20th century Peru, associated with heavy rainfall and flooding. It affected 502 000 people, ruined 944 km of roads, and damaged 580 health centres and 956 schools. Almost a quarter of all people affected (23%) came from Piura, in the northwest of Peru. In this study, we assessed the association between the 1997–98 ENSO and growth stunting in children younger than 5 years on Peru's north coast. Methods We analysed Peruvian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data, from 1996 and 2000, using a double-difference approach. Our primary outcome was childhood growth stunting, and our exposure was the ENSO phenomenon. The exposed group was from Peru's Piura coast, and the unexposed group was from southern coastal regions, which were less affected by the events associated with ENSO 1997–98. First, we conducted a regional comparison. Secondly, we used propensity score matching (PSM) to explore similarities between the exposed and non-exposed groups. We then estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) of childhood growth stunting using generalised linear models. Finally, we conducted a subanalysis by childhood age. Findings We studied 2270 and 1349 children younger than 5 years from 1996 and 2000, respectively. Regression without matching showed a PR of 1·37 (95% CI 0·93–2·01), and a PSM regression 1-to-2 PR of 1·45 (0·66–3·18), obtaining a PR greater than 1 but with a confidence interval that included the null value. Furthermore, we found a possible effect on children aged 0–11 months. In the regressions without PSM, analysis for this age group showed a PR of 2·48 (1·11–5·54); whereas, after PSM 1-to-2, the PR was 2·69 (1·03–7·03); alternative PSM was also consistent with these results. Analysis of the other age groups yielded results that were not statistically significant. Interpretation Our results suggest that the ENSO phenomenon could have increased childhood stunting on the coast of Piura. More specifically, children who were aged 0 to 11 months during the worst and most disruptive period of the El Niño phenomenon were at increased risk of growth stunting. Our results were consistent with and without PSM. Factors that might have contributed to our results include increased childhood morbidity with concurrent reductions in maternal and familial access to health care, and diminished household incomes due to El Niño's devastating effects during the disaster period. Our findings outline a need to prevent harm to people and their health during weather and natural events associated with ENSO. Specifically, there is a need for childhood-focused social protection systems, especially during critical stages of growth and development. Childhood-focused social protection and delivery systems will be instrumental in preventing downstream effects of similar climatic events. Funding Fogarty 2D43 TW007393. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Influenza vaccination hesitancy in five countries of South America. Confidence, complacency and convenience as determinants of immunization rates(Public Library of Science, 2020-12-01)INTRODUCTION: Influenza morbidity and mortality are significant in the countries of South America, yet influenza vaccination is as low as 56.7% among pregnant women, reaching 76.7% of adults with chronic diseases. This article measures the relative values for the vaccination hesitancy indicators of confidence, complacency and convenience by risk-groups in urban areas of five countries of South America with contrasting vaccination rates, analyzing their association with sociodemographic variables and self-reported immunization status. METHODS: An exit survey was applied to 640 individuals per country in Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay, distributed equally across risk groups of older adults, adults with risk factors, children ≤6 and pregnant women. Indicators were constructed for vaccine confidence, complacency and convenience. Analysis of variance and multiple logistic analysis was undertaken. RESULTS: Adults with risk factors are somewhat more confident of the influenza vaccine yet also more complacent. Convenience is higher for mothers of minors. Children and older adults report higher levels of vaccination. The 3Cs are more different across countries than across risk groups, with values for Chile higher for confidence and those for Uruguay the lowest. Complacency is lower in Brazil and higher in Uruguay. Results suggest that confidence and complacency affect vaccination rates across risk groups and countries. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccine confidence, complacency and convenience have to be bolstered to improve effective coverage across all risk groups in the urban areas of the countries studied. The role played by country contextual and national vaccination programs has to be further researched in relation to effective coverage of influenza vaccine. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Resilience profiles across context: A latent profile analysis in a German, Greek, and Swiss sample of adolescents(Public Library of Science, 2022-01-01)The present study investigated resilience profiles (based on levels of symptoms of anxiety and depression and five dimensions of protective factors) of 1,160 students from Germany (n = 346, 46.0% females, Mage = 12.77, SDage = 0.78), Greece (n = 439, 54.5% females, Mage = 12.68, SDage = 0.69), and Switzerland (n = 375, 44.5% females, Mage = 12.29, SDage = 0.88) using latent profile analyses. We also checked for measurement invariance and investigated the influence of gender and migration on class membership. A three-profile-solution was found for Switzerland (nonresilient 22.1%, moderately resilient 42.9%, untroubled 34.9%), and a four-profile-solution was the best fitting model for Germany (nonresilient 15.7%, moderately resilient 44.2%, untroubled 27.3%, resilient 12.7%) and Greece (nonresilient 21.0%, moderately resilient 30.8%, untroubled 24.9%, resilient 23.3%). Measurement invariance did not hold across the three countries. Profile differences regarding class membership predictions were detected for Germany and Greece, but none for Switzerland. Results implicate that resilience profiles are highly contextually sensitive, and resilience research findings should not be generalized considering the particularity of contexts, people, and outcomes. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Study protocol: Improving response to malaria in the Amazon through identification of inter-community networks and human mobility in border regions of Ecuador, Peru and Brazil(BMJ Publishing Group, 2024-04-15)Understanding human mobility’s role in malaria transmission is critical to successful control and elimination. However, common approaches to measuring mobility are ill-equipped for remote regions such as the Amazon. This study develops a network survey to quantify the effect of community connectivity and mobility on malaria transmission. Methods We measure community connectivity across the study area using a respondent driven sampling design among key informants who are at least 18 years of age. 45 initial communities will be selected: 10 in Brazil, 10 in Ecuador and 25 in Peru. Participants will be recruited in each initial node and administered a survey to obtain data on each community’s mobility patterns. Survey responses will be ranked and the 2–3 most connected communities will then be selected and surveyed. This process will be repeated for a third round of data collection. Community network matrices will be linked with each country’s malaria surveillance system to test the effects of mobility on disease risk. Ethics and dissemination This study protocol has been approved by the institutional review boards of Duke University (USA), Universidad San Francisco de Quito (Ecuador), Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia (Peru) and Universidade Federal Minas Gerais (Brazil). Results will be disseminated in communities by the end of the study. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Queens over Kings: Gender and Socioeconomic Predictors of Competitive Chess Performance among Peruvian Youth(RELX Group (Netherlands), 2025-01-01)1