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Item type:Publication, An Application of a Short Memory Model With Random Level Shifts to the Volatility of Latin American Stock Market Returns(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2014)Empirical research indicates that the volatility of stock return time series have long memory. However, it has been demonstrated that short memory processes contaminated with random level shifts can often be confused as being long memory. Often this feature is referred to as spurious long memory. This paper represents an empirical study of the random level shift (RLS) model using the approach of Lu and Perron (2010) and Li and Perron (2013) for the volatility of daily stocks returns data for five Latin American countries. The RLS model consists of the sum of a short term memory component and a level shift component, where the level shift component is governed by a Bernoulli process with a shift probability α. The estimation results suggest that the level shifts in the volatility of daily stocks returns data are infrequent but once they are taken into account, the long memory characteristic and the GARCH effects disappear. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise is also provided. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, An Application of a Random Level Shifts Model to the Volatility of Peruvian Stock and Exchange Rates Returns(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2014)The literature has shown that the volatility of Stock and Forex rate market returns shows the characteristic of long memory. Another fact that is shown in the literature is that this feature may be spurious and volatility actually consists of a short memory process contaminated with random level shifts. In this paper, we follow the approach of Lu and Perron (2010) and Li and Perron (2013) estimating a model of random level shifts (RLS) to the logarithm of the absolute value of Stock and Forex returns. The model consists of the sum of a short term memory component and a component of level shifts. The second component is speci.ed as the cumulative sum of a process that is zero with probability 1- α and is a random variable with probability α. The results show that there are level shifts that are rare but once they are taken into account, the characteristic or property of long memory disappears. Also, the presence of GARCH e¤ects is eliminated when included or deducted level shifts. An exercise of out-of-sample forecasting shows that the RLS model has better performance than traditional models for modeling long memory such as the models ARFIMA (p,d,q). - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Volatility of Stock Market and Exchange Rate Returns in Peru: Long Memory or Short Memory with Level Shifts?(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2014)Though the econometrics literature on this area is extensive, in Peru few studies have been dedicated to the analysis of financial returns in general and volatility in particular. As part of an empirical research agenda suggested by Humala and Rodríguez (2013), this paper represents one of the first attempts to distinguish between long- and short-memory (with level shifts) in volatility of Peru’s stock market and exchange rate returns. We utilize the statistical approach put forward by Perron and Qu (2010). The data is end-of-day and span the period January 3, 1990 to June 13, 2013 (5,831 observations) for the stock market returns, and January, 3 1997 until June 24, 2013 (4,110 observations) for exchange rate returns. The analysis of the ACF, the periodogram and the fractional parameter estimation for the two volatilities suggest that the theoretical predictions of Perron and Qu s simple mixture model (2010) are correct. The results are more conclusive for stock market volatility in comparison with those of the exchange rate. The application of one of the statistics employed by Perron and Qu (2010) suggest the rejection of a long-memory hypothesis for both volatilities. Nonetheless, the other statistics provide weak evidence against the null hypothesis, above all for the exchange rate market. To reinforce the findings, some results associated with other investigations are presented.