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Access type: UnknownAuthor: search.filters.author.Luis Ceferino

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    Placing engineering in the earthquake response and the survival chain
    (Nature Research, 2024-12-01)
    Earthquakes injure millions and simultaneously disrupt the infrastructure to protect them. This perspective argues that the current post-disaster investigation paradigm is insufficient to protect communities’ health effectively. We propose the Earthquake Survival Chain as a framework to change the current engineering focus on infrastructure to health. This framework highlights four converging research opportunities to advance understanding of earthquake injuries, search and rescue, patient mobilizations, and medical treatment. We offer an interdisciplinary research agenda in engineering and health sciences, including artificial intelligence and virtual reality, to protect health and life from earthquakes.
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    A Performance‐Based Earthquake Fatality Modeling Framework Using Collapse Volume Ratios
    (SAGE Publishing, 2026-04-16)
    Conventional earthquake fatality models represent building collapse as a binary state, an assumption that overlooks severe failure modes and systematically underestimates fatalities. This study advances the collapse volume ratio—a continuous metric quantifying the reduction of survivable space during collapse—into a probabilistic framework that directly links structural failure to fatality risk. Although previously introduced and quantified in limited studies, we extend its role from an observational measure to an analytical component of performance-based earthquake engineering modeling. The framework is designed for versatility, allowing implementation with different levels of data availability, including site-specific collapse observations, collapse fragility functions, or complete-damage fragility functions. Its applicability is demonstrated by leveraging post-earthquake data from reinforced concrete moment frame buildings affected by the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes and through case studies of mid-1970s non-ductile and post-1997 ductile concrete space-frame archetypes in California. Results show that conventional approaches, constrained by binary collapse assumptions, may underpredict fatalities by up to fortyfold at high shaking intensities. In contrast, the proposed framework reproduces observed fatality rates, estimating that under Maximum Considered Earthquake shaking, non-ductile buildings may experience fatality rates of 65%, compared to 11% for ductile buildings. These findings provide quantitative evidence of the life-safety benefits of modern seismic design and highlight the urgent need for retrofit policies addressing older, non-ductile construction.
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    Evaluating the Seismic Damage Dynamics of Buildings' Vertical Growth in Lima, Peru
    (SAGE Publishing, 2026-02-01)
    In Lima, as in many cities, most residential buildings grow vertically over their lifespan due to incremental construction. Multiple stories are added to buildings, often without structural retrofits or even without design. As a result, the seismic vulnerability of these buildings increases, requiring the government to create resilience policies that can keep up and bend the seismic risk growth. Unfortunately, little is known about the rate of vertical expansions and risk growth to develop regional risk policies for risk reduction. To address this gap, we surveyed 1311 buildings across four districts of Lima, comparing Google Street View imagery from 2013 to 2014 with field surveys from 2023. Using these data, we calibrated transition probability matrices within a Markov chain model to represent vertical growth dynamics. Results show that vertical expansion is faster in areas adjacent to primary roads compared to secondary ones. Applying the model to three recently established settlements, we projected future vertical growth and assessed its seismic implications. Under a simulated Mw 8.8 earthquake scenario, the probability of building collapse increases from less than 10% to over 30% within three decades. These findings show that vertical growth amplifies seismic risk in informal urban areas. Thus, our study highlights the importance of integrating vertical expansion into seismic risk assessments and policy discussions.
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