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Item type:Publication, Impacts of the future Amazon deforestation on the precipitation over the Peruvian central Andes and related atmospheric features(Elsevier BV, 2026-10-01)This study investigates the impact of a 40% Amazon deforestation scenario (projected for 2050) on precipitation over the central Peruvian Andes during five austral summer seasons (DJF 2001–2006) using high-resolution (1 km) WRF simulations. While a widespread rainfall reduction pattern is observed over the Amazon-Andes transition zone, statistically significant decreases ( p < 0.10) at the gridpoint level are primarily concentrated near rainfall hotspots in the Amazon-Andes transitions zone, reaching an average reduction of 12% (−1.4 mm day −1 ). This drying signal is physically associated with a weakening of the South American Low-Level Jet (LLJ) and reduced moisture influx, which specifically inhibits convective activity during the morning peak hours (23–11 LT). In the high-altitude Mantaro Basin, we observe a consistent drying pattern (−5%) that extends from the transition zone; although these changes are not statistically significant due to high interannual variability, the physical signal of precipitation reduction and dry air advection remains clear. Conversely, the western Andean ridges exhibit a localized precipitation increase (up to 20%) linked to intensified cross-barrier easterly wind anomalies reinforcing diurnal anabatic circulation. We further find that while 5 km resolution captures broad basin-scale patterns, convection-permitting scales (1 km) are essential for resolving these complex topographic effects. These findings highlight a critical vulnerability concentrated along the eastern slopes and the high Andes. The identified drying patterns, which are particularly pronounced in the Andes-Amazon transition zone (a global biodiversity hotspot) and extend into the highlands, pose a significant threat to endemic ecosystems and regional water security, specifically through reservoir inflow reduction and negative impacts on agriculture.1 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Characterisation of the Exceptional Heatwave Conditions Observed in Brazil During the Record-Hot Years of 2024 and 2025(Wiley, 2026-03-15)The intense heatwaves of 2024 and the summer of 2025 underscored Brazil's vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events. Our results show that 2024 recorded a higher number of hot spells, particularly in subtropical Brazil, while in 2023 the intensity of heatwaves was greater. During the summer of 2025, air temperatures in large parts of southern Brazil exceeded 40°C, reflecting the extreme heatwave conditions in that region. Between 1979 and the austral summer of 2025, there was a notable increase in both the number and intensity of heatwaves in tropical and subtropical regions of Brazil. Areas that rarely experienced heatwaves in the 1980s, such as the Amazon and northeastern Brazil, have been facing increasingly severe heatwave conditions since the 2000s. Significant differences were observed in the spatial extent and intensity of exceptional warm temperatures across the case studies in 2024 and in 2025, when Northern and central Brazil were the most severely affected regions. Co‐occurring drought conditions in 2024 likely heightened sensible and heat fluxes from the drying soil to the atmosphere, further escalating temperatures during the heatwave episodes. As a result, there was a significant increase in wildfire risk and activity, especially in June and September 2024. In contrast, during the summer of 2025, the central‐eastern and particularly southern regions of the country experienced the highest temperatures and the longest heatwaves.1 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, A New Process-Based Approach for Evaluating Gridded Precipitation Products in Mountain Watersheds: Test Cases From the Central Andes of Argentina(Wiley, 2026-02-01)Adequate quantification of precipitation and its spatiotemporal variability is crucial for understanding the physical and biological processes within a watershed. Mountain watersheds pose particular challenges due to strong spatial heterogeneity in precipitation and typically sparse in situ monitoring networks. The increasing availability of gridded precipitation products can help address these limitations, but their reliability at local or sub‐regional scales remains difficult to assess. This study proposes a novel, process‐based approach that incorporates daily streamflow data to evaluate the performance of four widely used gridded precipitation datasets (CHIRPS‐v2, MSWEP‐v2.8, GPCC‐v2022 and TerraClimate). Five key watersheds in central‐western Argentina (ca. 30°–37° S) serve as case studies. The evaluation framework is based on five process‐informed expectations derived from the region's climate and topography: (a) most annual precipitation should fall as snow during winter (April–September); (b) a strong positive relationship should exist between winter precipitation and summer streamflow; (c) interannual variability of precipitation should exceed that of streamflow due to basin‐scale damping effects; (d) runoff coefficients should be statistically lower than unity, reflecting mass conservation; and (e) winter precipitation should be concentrated at higher elevations. We apply simple non‐parametric statistical tests to evaluate how well each dataset meets these expectations. A comparative assessment identifies the most reliable product for each watershed. Our findings show that MSWEP and TerraClimate perform best overall, particularly in capturing total precipitation and its seasonality. Other datasets fail to reproduce key hydrological signals, likely due to a lack of physically based inputs (e.g., reanalysis). Overall, this process‐based, catchment‐integrative evaluation offers a promising framework for assessing precipitation products in other snow‐dominated mountain regions with limited ground observations, provided that the dominant hydroclimatic processes are well understood.1