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Item type:Publication, Assessing water management strategies in data-scarce mountain regions under uncertain climate and socio-economic changes(Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2024-09-01)Water management in mountainous regions faces significant challenges due to deep uncertainties arising from data scarcity, knowledge gaps, and the complex interplay of climate and socio-economic changes. While existing approaches focused on uncertainty reduction and water system optimization contribute to managing uncertainties, they often require probability distributions that can be difficult to obtain in data-scarce mountain regions. To address these challenges, we demonstrate the effectiveness of Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) in assessing water management strategies and identifying operational ranges that avoid future water scarcity. Through a case study in the complex and data-scarce Peruvian Andes, we employed EMA to run 12,000 simulations by 2050, incorporating deep uncertainties from climate and socio-economic scenarios, and hydrological modeling parameters. This analysis identified specific policy combinations demonstrating greater robustness across diverse scenarios and uncertainties. EMA explicitly identifies operational ranges of policies to avoid water scarcity but also highlights the conditions that might trigger policy failure. We also delve into the roles of the different factors used in EMA and their significance in water management applications. Our research illustrates that an exploratory hydrological modeling approach based on robust decision-making can foster a more informed decision-making process for long-term water adaptation in rapidly changing mountain regions under data scarcity and deep uncertainties. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Hydroelectric production and its hydrological influence: Main findings and proposals for decision-making in Peru(Universidad Cientifica del Sur, 2024-01-01)This policy brief analyzes the role of the hydropower regulation of Lake Sibinacocha in the streamflow of the Vilcanota-Urubamba River. To this end, a review was conducted of different articles related to the ecosystem service provided by the glacial runoff, with an emphasis on the availability of that resource due to the impact of climate change and/or hydropower regulation on the hydrological regime of the Vilcanota-Urubamba River. We concluded that there is a need for strengthening the data collection of the hydro-meteorological network installed at the national level, as well as for the development of research to evaluate the impacts associated with changes in the regime in regulated basins, and the identification of strategies for the development of physical infrastructure to guarantee water regulation and its hydro-energy use. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Cryosphere–groundwater connectivity is a missing link in the mountain water cycle(Springer Nature, 2024-07-01)The mountain cryosphere and groundwater play pivotal roles in shaping the hydrological cycle, yet their connectivity remains incompletely understood. Current knowledge on meltwater recharge and consequent groundwater discharge processes is better developed for snow–groundwater connectivity than for glacier–groundwater connectivity. Estimates of meltwater recharge vary considerably, which is probably a function of not only inherent catchment characteristics but also of the different spatio-temporal scales involved and the uncertainties in the methods used. This hinders a comprehensive understanding of the mountain water cycle. As glaciers retreat, permafrost thaws and snowpack diminishes, the relative importance of mountain groundwater is expected to increase. However, shifting and declining recharge from the cryosphere may decrease absolute groundwater amounts and fluxes with as-yet unknown effects on catchment-scale hydrological processes. We therefore stress the need to better quantify mountain cryosphere–groundwater connectivity to predict climate change impacts on mountain water supply and to support sustainable water resource management of downstream socio-ecological systems. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Scientific evidence of the hydrological impacts of nature-based solutions at the catchment scale(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2024-09-01)The of nature-based solutions (NbS) in catchments has the potential to increase the cost-effectiveness, flexibility, and reliability of water management practices aimed at improving water security. However, the scientific-evidence base of the hydrological impacts of NbS is still weak, and there is therefore a risk that catchment interventions might not lead to the desired hydrological outcomes. This is especially important when assessing NbS-based catchment interventions before their implementation, as this requires robust simulation tools capable of effectively managing the uncertainties associated with future forecasts. This study aims to review the hydrological impacts of different NbS intervention types for water management. First, we present an NbS typology and the corresponding dominant hydrological impacts. We then use this typology to review the strength of the current evidence of the effect of NbS interventions on the hydrological response at the catchment-scale. Our results demonstrate that the effectiveness of each NbS type hinges on specific conditions such as location, design, and environmental factors. For instance, micro-reservoirs notably enhance surface storage and evaporation, while infiltration trenches reduce runoff but can increase soil erosion. Our global analysis highlights the need for an improved understanding of NbS catchment impacts and careful planning of NbS interventions as a key for successful long-term implementation of NbS. These include participatory approaches with stakeholder involvement in NbS co-design, knowledge co-production, and novel data collection to support locally relevant adaptation strategies, and to increase water security on the long term. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Engineering Water > Planning Water Water and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness.